Football · Malawi Super League · 01/11, 13:30
Prediction: Moyale Barracks vs Karonga United
Team pages: Moyale Barracks · Karonga United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Moyale Barracks1.31
Karonga United0.89
1X2
Moyale Barracks
Draw
Karonga United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Moyale Barracks
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Karonga United
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Moyale Barracks
2–2–2
Karonga United
(6 last)
- Karonga United0-0Moyale Barracks
- Karonga United3-1Moyale Barracks
- Moyale Barracks0-1Karonga United
- Moyale Barracks1-0Karonga United
- Moyale Barracks1-1Karonga United
- Moyale Barracks2-0Karonga United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moyale Barracks 1486 · Karonga United 1473
| Moyale Barracks | Draw | Karonga United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | 45% | 31% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moyale Barracks | Karonga United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 2.1 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moyale Barracks 2–2–2 Karonga United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 24/08/25 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 03/08/25 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Karonga United |
| 24/08/24 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Karonga United |
| 15/04/23 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Karonga United |
| 08/05/22 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Karonga United |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bullets | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 39 |
| 2 | Mighty Wanderers | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 37 |
| 3 | Blue Eagles | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 34 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Chitipa United | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 25 |
| 6 | Ekhaya FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Masters FC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | Moyale Barracks | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 22 | 23 |
| 10 | Red Lions | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 22 |
| 11 | Civil Service Utd | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 21 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | Creck SC | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 16 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 14 |
| 16 | MAFCO | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 24 | 13 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moyale Barracks | Karonga United |
|---|---|---|
| Dedza Dynamos | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Silver Strikers | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Creck SC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Mighty Wanderers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Civil Service Utd | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Moyale Barracks (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moyale Barracks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Karonga United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moyale Barracks vs Karonga United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Moyale Barracks win (45%). Probabilities: Moyale Barracks 45%, draw 31%, Karonga United 24%.
How many goals are expected in Moyale Barracks vs Karonga United?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Moyale Barracks 1.31 · Karonga United 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Moyale Barracks vs Karonga United?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.