Football · Malawi Super League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Karonga United vs Mighty Wanderers

Team pages: Karonga United · Mighty Wanderers

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Karonga United0.82

Mighty Wanderers1.63

1X2

18% 27% 55%

Karonga United Draw Mighty Wanderers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Karonga United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLDDW

Mighty Wanderers 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWWLWW

Head-to-head

Karonga United 1–1–4 Mighty Wanderers (6 last)

Mighty Wanderers4-1Karonga United
Mighty Wanderers2-0Karonga United
Karonga United1-1Mighty Wanderers
Mighty Wanderers1-0Karonga United
Karonga United1-0Mighty Wanderers
Mighty Wanderers1-0Karonga United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karonga United 1449 · Mighty Wanderers 1537

	Karonga United	Draw	Mighty Wanderers
Our model	18%	27%	55%
Market	18%	27%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mighty Wanderers (rating 1449 vs 1537).
H2H favours Mighty Wanderers: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karonga United	Mighty Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.4	3.8 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.30

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +7’	5.00	3.30	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karonga United 1–1–4 Mighty Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Malawi Super League	Mighty Wanderers	4-1 HT 3-1	Karonga United
11/12/25 Malawi Super League	Mighty Wanderers	2-0 HT 2-0	Karonga United
29/06/25 Malawi Super League	Karonga United	1-1 HT 1-1	Mighty Wanderers
19/04/25 Malawi Top 8 Cup	Mighty Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Karonga United
20/10/24 Malawi Super League	Karonga United	1-0 HT 1-0	Mighty Wanderers
11/05/24 Malawi Super League	Mighty Wanderers	1-0 HT 1-0	Karonga United

Standings · Malawi Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Big Bullets	18	11	6	1	26	7	39
2	Mighty Wanderers	18	10	6	2	30	12	36
3	Blue Eagles	18	11	1	6	28	20	34
4	Silver Strikers	18	9	6	3	24	11	33
5	Chitipa United	18	7	4	7	13	19	25
6	Ekhaya FC	18	6	7	5	19	15	25
7	Mitundu Baptist FC	18	6	7	5	16	15	25
8	Masters FC	17	6	5	6	17	17	23
9	Red Lions	17	5	7	5	13	14	22
10	Moyale Barracks	18	5	7	6	18	21	22
11	Civil Service Utd	18	6	3	9	11	17	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	4	7	6	11	20	19
13	Karonga United	16	4	5	7	15	23	17
14	Kamuzu Barracks	18	3	5	10	16	25	14
15	Creck SC	17	3	4	10	13	22	13
16	MAFCO	18	3	4	11	12	24	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karonga United	Mighty Wanderers
Civil Service Utd	1-0 W	2-0 W
Creck SC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Silver Strikers	1-4 L	1-0 W
Moyale Barracks	0-0 D	1-1 D
Blue Eagles	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mighty Wanderers (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karonga United

LDLLWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
06/09	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
23/08	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
09/08	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
26/07	Creck SC Malawi Super League	2-1	2-1	1	1	W
19/07	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-0	1-4	2	1	L
04/07	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
28/06	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/06	Blue Eagles Malawi Super League	2-2	2-3	3	4	L

Mighty Wanderers

WWDDDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Creck SC Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
10/10	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
19/09	Blue Eagles Malawi Super League	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
22/08	Red Lions Malawi Super League	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
16/08	Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League	2-0	2-0	11	1	W
08/08	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/07	Masters FC Malawi Super League	1-1	1-1	12	1	D
18/07	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/07	MAFCO Malawi Super League	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karonga United vs Mighty Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mighty Wanderers win (55%). Probabilities: Karonga United 18%, draw 27%, Mighty Wanderers 55%.

How many goals are expected in Karonga United vs Mighty Wanderers?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Karonga United 0.82 · Mighty Wanderers 1.63), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Karonga United vs Mighty Wanderers?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.