Football · Malawi Super League · 11/10, 14:30
Prediction: Karonga United vs Civil Service Utd
Team pages: Karonga United · Civil Service Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.94Total
Karonga United0.96
Civil Service Utd0.98
1X2
Karonga United
Draw
Civil Service Utd
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Karonga United
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Civil Service Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Karonga United
3–1–2
Civil Service Utd
(6 last)
- Civil Service Utd0-1Karonga United
- Karonga United1-2Civil Service Utd
- Civil Service Utd0-1Karonga United
- Civil Service Utd3-0Karonga United
- Civil Service Utd1-1Karonga United
- Civil Service Utd0-1Karonga United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karonga United 1461 · Civil Service Utd 1495
| Karonga United | Draw | Civil Service Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Market | 33% | 33% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.94 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Karonga United: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Karonga United | Civil Service Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karonga United 3–1–2 Civil Service Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Karonga United |
| 24/12/25 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Civil Service Utd |
| 06/04/25 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Karonga United |
| 24/11/24 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Karonga United |
| 24/09/23 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Karonga United |
| 05/06/21 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Karonga United |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mighty Wanderers | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | Blue Eagles | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 31 |
| 3 | Big Bullets | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 29 |
| 5 | Chitipa United | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Masters FC | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 22 |
| 7 | Moyale Barracks | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 22 |
| 8 | Red Lions | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 21 |
| 9 | Ekhaya FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 21 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 21 |
| 11 | Civil Service Utd | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 15 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | MAFCO | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 13 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 24 | 12 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Karonga United | Civil Service Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Mitundu Baptist FC | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Creck SC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Silver Strikers | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Moyale Barracks | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Blue Eagles | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Red Lions | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Karonga United (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karonga United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
Civil Service Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/07 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karonga United vs Civil Service Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Civil Service Utd win (34%). Probabilities: Karonga United 33%, draw 33%, Civil Service Utd 34%.
How many goals are expected in Karonga United vs Civil Service Utd?
The model expects 1.94 goals (Karonga United 0.96 · Civil Service Utd 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Karonga United vs Civil Service Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.