Football · Malawi Super League · 10/10, 14:30

Prediction: Ekhaya FC vs Kamuzu Barracks

Team pages: Ekhaya FC · Kamuzu Barracks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Ekhaya FC1.49

Kamuzu Barracks0.97

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Ekhaya FC Draw Kamuzu Barracks

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ekhaya FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLDLLD

Kamuzu Barracks 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDLDL

Head-to-head

Ekhaya FC 2–1 Kamuzu Barracks (3 last)

Kamuzu Barracks1-4Ekhaya FC
Ekhaya FC3-0Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks1-0Ekhaya FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ekhaya FC 1528 · Kamuzu Barracks 1433

	Ekhaya FC	Draw	Kamuzu Barracks
Our model	48%	29%	23%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekhaya FC (rating 1528 vs 1433).
H2H favours Ekhaya FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ekhaya FC	Kamuzu Barracks
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +4’	1.91	3.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ekhaya FC 2–0–1 Kamuzu Barracks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Malawi Super League	Kamuzu Barracks	1-4 HT 0-2	Ekhaya FC
22/10/25 Malawi Super League	Ekhaya FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Kamuzu Barracks
17/05/25 Malawi Super League	Kamuzu Barracks	1-0 HT 1-0	Ekhaya FC

Standings · Malawi Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Big Bullets	15	8	6	1	20	7	30
2	Mighty Wanderers	15	8	6	1	27	10	30
3	Silver Strikers	15	8	5	2	23	10	29
4	Blue Eagles	14	9	1	4	22	15	28
5	Masters FC	15	6	4	5	17	16	22
6	Moyale Barracks	16	5	7	4	17	18	22
7	Chitipa United	15	6	3	6	11	16	21
8	Red Lions	15	5	5	5	12	13	20
9	Mitundu Baptist FC	15	5	5	5	12	13	20
10	Civil Service Utd	15	6	2	7	10	14	20
11	Ekhaya FC	15	4	6	5	15	14	18
12	Dedza Dynamos	15	3	6	6	9	19	15
13	Karonga United	15	3	5	7	14	23	14
14	MAFCO	15	3	4	8	12	17	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	15	3	3	9	15	22	12
16	Creck SC	15	2	4	9	11	20	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ekhaya FC	Kamuzu Barracks
Dedza Dynamos	1-1 D	0-1 L
Chitipa United	0-1 L	1-2 L
Big Bullets	0-0 D	1-2 L
MAFCO	1-0 W	4-1 W
Mighty Wanderers	1-1 D	0-2 L
Masters FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ekhaya FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ekhaya FC

WDWDDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Karonga United Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
22/08	Creck SC Malawi Super League	2-0	2-3	5	1	L
15/08	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
08/08	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
25/07	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/07	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
05/07	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
28/06	MAFCO Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
20/06	Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/05	Masters FC Malawi Super League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Kamuzu Barracks

LLLLWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
22/08	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
16/08	Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
09/08	Red Lions Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
26/07	MAFCO Malawi Super League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
19/07	Blue Eagles Malawi Super League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
05/07	Masters FC Malawi Super League	0-1	0-1	4	0	L
27/06	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
21/06	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
31/05	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ekhaya FC vs Kamuzu Barracks?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ekhaya FC win (48%). Probabilities: Ekhaya FC 48%, draw 29%, Kamuzu Barracks 23%.

How many goals are expected in Ekhaya FC vs Kamuzu Barracks?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Ekhaya FC 1.49 · Kamuzu Barracks 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ekhaya FC vs Kamuzu Barracks?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.