Football · Malawi Super League · 10/10, 14:30
Prediction: Chitipa United vs MAFCO
Team pages: Chitipa United · MAFCO
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.04Total
Chitipa United1.27
MAFCO0.77
1X2
Chitipa United
Draw
MAFCO
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Chitipa United
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
MAFCO
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chitipa United
2–1–3
MAFCO
(6 last)
- MAFCO2-0Chitipa United
- Chitipa United2-1MAFCO
- MAFCO1-0Chitipa United
- Chitipa United0-0MAFCO
- MAFCO1-0Chitipa United
- Chitipa United1-0MAFCO
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chitipa United 1506 · MAFCO 1434
| Chitipa United | Draw | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chitipa United (rating 1506 vs 1434).
- H2H favours MAFCO: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chitipa United | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 11/44/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.4 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chitipa United 2–1–3 MAFCO
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Chitipa United |
| 25/10/25 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 2-1 HT 0-1 | MAFCO |
| 05/04/25 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Chitipa United |
| 24/08/24 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | MAFCO |
| 11/07/21 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chitipa United |
| 04/04/21 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | MAFCO |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bullets | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 30 |
| 2 | Mighty Wanderers | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Silver Strikers | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 29 |
| 4 | Blue Eagles | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 28 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 22 |
| 6 | Moyale Barracks | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 22 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Red Lions | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 20 |
| 9 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 20 |
| 10 | Civil Service Utd | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | Ekhaya FC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 18 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 15 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | MAFCO | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 13 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 12 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chitipa United | MAFCO |
|---|---|---|
| Ekhaya FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Dedza Dynamos | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Kamuzu Barracks | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Red Lions | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Mighty Wanderers | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: MAFCO (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chitipa United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
MAFCO
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chitipa United vs MAFCO?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chitipa United win (47%). Probabilities: Chitipa United 47%, draw 32%, MAFCO 21%.
How many goals are expected in Chitipa United vs MAFCO?
The model expects 2.04 goals (Chitipa United 1.27 · MAFCO 0.77), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Chitipa United vs MAFCO?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.