Football · Malawi Super League · 11/10, 14:30

Prediction: Big Bullets vs Blue Eagles

Team pages: Big Bullets · Blue Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Big Bullets1.22

Blue Eagles0.84

1X2

44% 31% 24%

Big Bullets Draw Blue Eagles

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Big Bullets 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLWWDW

Blue Eagles 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Big Bullets 1–4–1 Blue Eagles (6 last)

Blue Eagles1-1Big Bullets
Blue Eagles0-0Big Bullets
Big Bullets0-1Blue Eagles
Big Bullets0-0Blue Eagles
Big Bullets3-0Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles1-1Big Bullets

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Big Bullets 1568 · Blue Eagles 1554

	Big Bullets	Draw	Blue Eagles
Our model	44%	32%	24%
Market	45%	31%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Big Bullets	Blue Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.3	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.1	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	2.88 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90
2	2.70 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +9’	2.55	2.88	2.70
15:57 +18’	2.00▼	2.90▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Big Bullets 1–4–1 Blue Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Malawi Super League	Blue Eagles	1-1 HT 1-0	Big Bullets
06/11/25 Malawi Super League	Blue Eagles	0-0 HT 0-0	Big Bullets
27/07/25 Malawi Super League	Big Bullets	0-1 HT 0-0	Blue Eagles
01/09/24 Malawi League Cup	Big Bullets	0-0 HT 0-0	Blue Eagles
09/07/23 Malawi Super League	Big Bullets	3-0 HT 1-0	Blue Eagles
09/04/22 Malawi Super League	Blue Eagles	1-1 HT 1-1	Big Bullets

Standings · Malawi Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blue Eagles	15	10	1	4	24	16	31
2	Big Bullets	15	8	6	1	20	7	30
3	Mighty Wanderers	16	8	6	2	28	12	30
4	Silver Strikers	15	8	5	2	23	10	29
5	Masters FC	15	6	4	5	17	16	22
6	Moyale Barracks	16	5	7	4	17	18	22
7	Chitipa United	15	6	3	6	11	16	21
8	Red Lions	15	5	5	5	12	13	20
9	Mitundu Baptist FC	15	5	5	5	12	13	20
10	Civil Service Utd	15	6	2	7	10	14	20
11	Ekhaya FC	15	4	6	5	15	14	18
12	Dedza Dynamos	15	3	6	6	9	19	15
13	Karonga United	15	3	5	7	14	23	14
14	MAFCO	15	3	4	8	12	17	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	15	3	3	9	15	22	12
16	Creck SC	15	2	4	9	11	20	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Big Bullets	Blue Eagles
Mitundu Baptist FC	0-0 D	2-3 L
Karonga United	1-0 W	3-2 W
Masters FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Kamuzu Barracks	2-1 W	1-2 L
Moyale Barracks	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Big Bullets (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Big Bullets

DWWWDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	3-0	5-0	4	4	W
23/08	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
16/08	Karonga United Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
09/08	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
25/07	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/07	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
04/07	Creck SC Malawi Super League	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
29/06	Masters FC Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/06	Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League	1-0	2-1	12	1	W
31/05	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D

Blue Eagles

WLWLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
22/08	Masters FC Malawi Super League	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
16/08	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
08/08	MAFCO Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
08/08	MAFCO Malawi Super League	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Red Lions Malawi Super League	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/07	Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
04/07	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/06	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-1	2-3	4	1	L
21/06	Karonga United Malawi Super League	2-2	3-2	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Big Bullets vs Blue Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Big Bullets win (44%). Probabilities: Big Bullets 44%, draw 31%, Blue Eagles 24%.

How many goals are expected in Big Bullets vs Blue Eagles?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Big Bullets 1.22 · Blue Eagles 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Big Bullets vs Blue Eagles?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.