Football · Finland Kolmonen · 23/07, 18:00

Prediction: Nykarleby IK vs VIFK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

Nykarleby IK0.92

VIFK2.92

1X2

9% 13% 78%

Nykarleby IK Draw VIFK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Nykarleby IK 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWLDD

VIFK 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Nykarleby IK 0–1 VIFK (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nykarleby IK 1501 · VIFK 1602

	Nykarleby IK	Draw	VIFK
Our model	8%	14%	77%
Market	9%	12%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VIFK (rating 1501 vs 1602).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nykarleby IK	VIFK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	3.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/38/38%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X7.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)2.00

2 (-2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:03 +1’	10.00	7.50	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nykarleby IK 0–0–1 VIFK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	VIFK	6-0	Nykarleby IK

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	12	10	1	1	44	8	31
2	FC Kiisto	12	8	3	1	34	14	27
3	SIF	13	6	3	4	26	18	21
4	FC Ylivieska	12	6	1	5	37	29	19
5	SJK-j	12	5	3	4	28	17	18
6	VPV Pallo-Veikot	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
7	Virkia	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
8	Nykarleby IK	12	4	4	4	16	27	16
9	Sporting Kristina	11	4	2	5	15	16	14
10	KPV Akatemia	11	2	1	8	27	38	7
11	LBK	12	2	1	9	12	32	7
12	Sääripotku	10	0	1	9	4	51	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nykarleby IK	VIFK
FC Kiisto	0-0 D	2-1 W
Sporting Kristina	1-1 D	0-1 L
LBK	0-5 L	5-0 W
KPV Akatemia	2-1 W	7-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	1-1 D	2-1 W
SJK-j	3-1 W	0-0 D
SIF	0-2 L	1-0 W
FC Ylivieska	6-4 W	5-2 W
Virkia	1-1 D	3-1 W
Sääripotku	1-0 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 2 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: VIFK (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nykarleby IK

WDWLWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
02/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
25/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-5	0	3	L
18/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
11/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
04/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
28/05	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	0	3	L
21/05	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	3-3	6-4	3	5	W
13/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/05	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W

VIFK

WWDWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	7-1	–	–	W
29/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
25/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
11/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	4-1	7-1	7	1	W
27/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
23/05	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
09/05	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	–	5-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nykarleby IK vs VIFK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VIFK win (78%). Probabilities: Nykarleby IK 9%, draw 13%, VIFK 78%.

How many goals are expected in Nykarleby IK vs VIFK?

The model expects 3.84 goals (Nykarleby IK 0.92 · VIFK 2.92), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nykarleby IK vs VIFK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.