Football · Argentina Nacional B · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: CA Colegiales vs Atletico Rafaela

Team pages: CA Colegiales · Atletico Rafaela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

CA Colegiales1.4

Atletico Rafaela0.81

1X2

49% 30% 20%

CA Colegiales Draw Atletico Rafaela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Colegiales 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWWDW

Atletico Rafaela 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

CA Colegiales 0–1 Atletico Rafaela (1 last)

Atletico Rafaela1-0CA Colegiales

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Colegiales 1542 · Atletico Rafaela 1482

	CA Colegiales	Draw	Atletico Rafaela
Our model	50%	30%	20%
Market	49%	30%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Colegiales (rating 1542 vs 1482).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Colegiales	Atletico Rafaela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.15
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.56 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +2’	1.80	3.10	4.75
03:11 +2’	1.85▲	3.00▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:05 +10’	1.72	3.12	5.46
23:42 +32’	1.74▲	3.15▲	5.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Colegiales 0–0–1 Atletico Rafaela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Nacional B	Atletico Rafaela	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Colegiales

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	33	15	62
2	Club Atletico Temperley	33	16	11	6	40	27	59
3	CA Atlanta	34	18	4	12	40	33	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	15	10	8	50	42	55
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	34	14	10	10	37	31	52
6	Ferrocarril Midland	33	14	9	10	38	26	51
7	CA Colegiales	34	14	8	12	35	31	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	40	33	48
9	San Martin SJ	33	12	10	11	35	33	46
10	Atletico Rafaela	34	12	9	13	28	34	45
11	San Martin de Tucuman	33	10	13	10	35	33	43
12	Almagro	33	11	8	14	30	39	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	27	38	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	30	29	39
15	Patronato Parana	34	7	16	11	29	33	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	9	9	15	24	32	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	26	35	36
18	CA Guemes	33	5	8	20	23	56	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Colegiales	Atletico Rafaela
Agropecuario	3-0 W	0-2 L
Tristan Suarez	0-0 D	2-1 W
CA Guemes	1-0 W	0-0 D
Ferrocarril Midland	3-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Colegiales (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Colegiales

DWWLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
10/10	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
04/10	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
27/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	2-1	2-1	1	9	W
20/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	10	6	L
12/09	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
06/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-3	13	5	L
03/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
29/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
22/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Atletico Rafaela

DDWLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
10/10	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
04/10	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
27/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
19/09	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	2-2	4-2	1	6	W
13/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
06/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
29/08	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
24/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
15/08	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Colegiales vs Atletico Rafaela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Colegiales win (49%). Probabilities: CA Colegiales 49%, draw 30%, Atletico Rafaela 20%.

How many goals are expected in CA Colegiales vs Atletico Rafaela?

The model expects 2.2 goals (CA Colegiales 1.4 · Atletico Rafaela 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Colegiales vs Atletico Rafaela?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.