Football · Argentina Nacional B · 02/11, 19:00
Prediction: Atletico Rafaela vs Patronato Parana
Team pages: Atletico Rafaela · Patronato Parana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.01Total
Atletico Rafaela0.84
Patronato Parana1.18
1X2
Atletico Rafaela
Draw
Patronato Parana
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Rafaela
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Patronato Parana
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Rafaela
2–1–1
Patronato Parana
(4 last)
- Patronato Parana0-0Atletico Rafaela
- Atletico Rafaela3-0Patronato Parana
- Patronato Parana2-1Atletico Rafaela
- Atletico Rafaela3-1Patronato Parana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Rafaela 1479 · Patronato Parana 1479
| Atletico Rafaela | Draw | Patronato Parana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 33% | 42% |
| Market | 26% | 30% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Atletico Rafaela: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Rafaela | Patronato Parana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.9 | 2.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.5 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Rafaela 2–1–1 Patronato Parana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 17/12/16 Argentina Superliga | Atletico Rafaela | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 30/04/16 Argentina Liga Profesional | Patronato Parana | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 23/04/16 Argentina Liga Profesional | Atletico Rafaela | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Patronato Parana |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 35 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 34 | 16 | 63 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 35 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 34 | 61 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Temperley | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 41 | 29 | 60 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 35 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 52 | 44 | 58 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 29 | 54 |
| 6 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 37 | 34 | 52 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 34 | 51 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 32 | 51 |
| 9 | San Martin SJ | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 48 |
| 10 | San Martin de Tucuman | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 46 |
| 11 | Atletico Rafaela | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 29 | 35 | 46 |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 29 | 38 | 43 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 32 | 30 | 42 |
| 14 | Almagro | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 32 | 42 | 42 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 35 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 27 | 35 | 39 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 35 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 29 | 35 | 37 |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 34 | 37 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 35 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 60 | 26 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Rafaela | Patronato Parana |
|---|---|---|
| CA Atlanta | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Agropecuario | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Tristan Suarez | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| CA Guemes | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Patronato Parana (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 10/10 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
2-2 | 4-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/08 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
Patronato Parana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 11/10 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 22/09 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/08 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Rafaela vs Patronato Parana?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Patronato Parana win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Rafaela 26%, draw 31%, Patronato Parana 43%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Rafaela vs Patronato Parana?
The model expects 2.01 goals (Atletico Rafaela 0.84 · Patronato Parana 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Rafaela vs Patronato Parana?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.