Football · Argentina Nacional B · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Quilmes vs San Martin de Tucuman

Team pages: Quilmes · San Martin de Tucuman

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Quilmes1.17

San Martin de Tucuman0.84

1X2

43% 31% 26%

Quilmes Draw San Martin de Tucuman

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Quilmes 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWDLL

San Martin de Tucuman 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLDWLW

Head-to-head

Quilmes 1–3–2 San Martin de Tucuman (6 last)

San Martin de Tucuman0-0Quilmes
San Martin de Tucuman1-1Quilmes
Quilmes1-2San Martin de Tucuman
Quilmes1-2San Martin de Tucuman
San Martin de Tucuman0-0Quilmes
Quilmes2-0San Martin de Tucuman

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quilmes 1461 · San Martin de Tucuman 1514

	Quilmes	Draw	San Martin de Tucuman
Our model	42%	33%	25%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin de Tucuman (rating 1461 vs 1514).
H2H favours San Martin de Tucuman: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quilmes	San Martin de Tucuman
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.7	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:05 +9’	2.20	3.20	3.20
05:14 +5’	2.10▼	3.20	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Quilmes 1–3–2 San Martin de Tucuman

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	0-0 HT 0-0	Quilmes
29/09/25 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	1-1 HT 1-1	Quilmes
27/05/25 Argentina Nacional B	Quilmes	1-2 HT 1-0	San Martin de Tucuman
23/07/24 Argentina Nacional B	Quilmes	1-2 HT 1-1	San Martin de Tucuman
05/03/24 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	0-0 HT 0-0	Quilmes
27/04/22 Argentina Cup	Quilmes	2-0 HT 1-0	San Martin de Tucuman

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	33	15	62
2	Club Atletico Temperley	34	16	12	6	41	28	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	51	42	58
4	CA Atlanta	34	18	4	12	40	33	58
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	34	14	10	10	37	31	52
6	Ferrocarril Midland	34	14	9	11	40	29	51
7	CA Colegiales	34	14	8	12	35	31	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	40	33	48
9	San Martin SJ	34	12	11	11	36	34	47
10	San Martin de Tucuman	34	11	13	10	38	35	46
11	Atletico Rafaela	34	12	9	13	28	34	45
12	Almagro	34	11	8	15	31	41	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	27	38	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	30	29	39
15	Patronato Parana	34	7	16	11	29	33	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	26	35	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	24	33	36
18	CA Guemes	34	6	8	20	25	57	26

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quilmes	San Martin de Tucuman
Atletico Rafaela	0-1 L	2-4 L
Agropecuario	0-1 L	3-0 W
Tristan Suarez	0-0 D	0-2 L
CA Guemes	2-0 W	1-1 D
Chacarita Juniors	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Quilmes (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quilmes

WLLLWLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
10/10	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
03/10	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
26/09	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
20/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	6	11	L
12/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
07/09	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
16/08	CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	5	4	W

San Martin de Tucuman

DWDLWLDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/10	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
04/10	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
28/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
19/09	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-4	4	6	L
13/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
30/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
23/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quilmes vs San Martin de Tucuman?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Quilmes win (43%). Probabilities: Quilmes 43%, draw 31%, San Martin de Tucuman 26%.

How many goals are expected in Quilmes vs San Martin de Tucuman?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Quilmes 1.17 · San Martin de Tucuman 0.84), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Quilmes vs San Martin de Tucuman?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.