Football · Argentina Nacional B · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Defensores de Belgrano vs CA San Miguel

Team pages: Defensores de Belgrano · CA San Miguel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Defensores de Belgrano1.17

CA San Miguel0.96

1X2

39% 33% 28%

Defensores de Belgrano Draw CA San Miguel

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Defensores de Belgrano 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWWLDL

CA San Miguel 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLLDL

Head-to-head

Defensores de Belgrano 1–2–0 CA San Miguel (3 last)

CA San Miguel0-0Defensores de Belgrano
CA San Miguel0-0Defensores de Belgrano
Defensores de Belgrano3-0CA San Miguel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensores de Belgrano 1488 · CA San Miguel 1414

	Defensores de Belgrano	Draw	CA San Miguel
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	39%	33%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensores de Belgrano (rating 1488 vs 1414).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensores de Belgrano	CA San Miguel
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +10’	2.38	2.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores de Belgrano 1–2–0 CA San Miguel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Nacional B	CA San Miguel	0-0 HT 0-0	Defensores de Belgrano
06/04/18 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA San Miguel	0-0 HT 0-0	Defensores de Belgrano
18/11/17 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores de Belgrano	3-0 HT 0-0	CA San Miguel

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	18	8	7	37	28	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	17	7	9	51	34	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	16	9	8	42	29	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	14	12	8	47	30	54
5	Colon	34	14	12	8	41	27	54
6	Club Ciudad de Bolivar	34	13	12	9	30	29	51
7	CA Estudiantes Caseros	33	13	9	11	31	27	48
8	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	28	24	48
9	Los Andes	33	9	13	11	25	24	40
10	CA Chaco For Ever	33	10	10	13	32	34	40
11	Racing de Cordoba	33	10	10	13	30	39	40
12	Defensores de Belgrano	33	8	13	12	25	32	37
13	CA San Telmo	33	9	10	14	28	37	37
14	Club Atletico Mitre	33	7	15	11	29	39	36
15	Central Norte	33	6	16	11	21	30	34
16	All Boys	33	6	16	11	18	28	34
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	25	35	33
18	CA San Miguel	34	6	14	14	27	41	32

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensores de Belgrano	CA San Miguel
CA Chaco For Ever	2-2 D	0-3 L
Los Andes	1-1 D	1-1 D
Club Ciudad de Bolivar	0-1 L	1-2 L
Almirante Brown	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Defensores de Belgrano

DLLWDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Acassuso Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
04/10	CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
27/09	Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
20/09	Central Norte Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/09	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
09/09	Los Andes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	8	0	D
04/09	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
29/08	Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
22/08	Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
15/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

CA San Miguel

LLLLDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
11/10	Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/10	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
26/09	CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
19/09	All Boys Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	Los Andes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
06/09	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
30/08	Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
26/08	CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
22/08	Colon Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensores de Belgrano vs CA San Miguel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensores de Belgrano win (39%). Probabilities: Defensores de Belgrano 39%, draw 33%, CA San Miguel 28%.

How many goals are expected in Defensores de Belgrano vs CA San Miguel?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Defensores de Belgrano 1.17 · CA San Miguel 0.96), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensores de Belgrano vs CA San Miguel?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.