Football · Australia WA Premier League Women · 23/08, 09:00

Prediction: Sorrento (W) vs Balcatta FC (W)

Team pages: Sorrento (W) · Balcatta FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Sorrento (W)0.88

Balcatta FC (W)2.63

1X2

10% 16% 74%

Sorrento (W) Draw Balcatta FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Sorrento (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Balcatta FC (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sorrento (W) 0–1–2 Balcatta FC (W) (3 last)

Balcatta FC (W)1-1Sorrento (W)
Sorrento (W)0-3Balcatta FC (W)
Sorrento (W)0-2Balcatta FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sorrento (W) 1421 · Balcatta FC (W) 1614

	Sorrento (W)	Draw	Balcatta FC (W)
Our model	9%	16%	74%
Market	10%	16%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Balcatta FC (W) (rating 1421 vs 1614).
H2H favours Balcatta FC (W): 2-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sorrento (W)	Balcatta FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.2	4.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	1.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.75

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.88

2 (-2)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
X	7.00 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75
2	1.14 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:20 +7’	10.00	7.00	1.14
15:27 +15’	9.00▼	5.75▼	1.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sorrento (W) 0–1–2 Balcatta FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Australia WA Premier League Women	Balcatta FC (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Sorrento (W)
03/05/26 Australia WA Premier League Women	Sorrento (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Balcatta FC (W)
05/07/22 Australia WA State Cup Women	Sorrento (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Balcatta FC (W)

Standings · Australia WA Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Perth SC (W)	20	14	4	2	42	11	46
2	Balcatta FC (W)	20	12	6	2	47	18	42
3	Fremantle City FC (W)	20	12	4	4	43	19	40
4	Perth Redstar FC (W)	20	6	6	8	30	29	24
5	Hyundai NTC Women	20	6	6	8	35	37	24
6	Subiaco AFC (W)	20	7	2	11	29	42	23
7	Sorrento (W)	20	3	4	13	18	48	13
8	UWA-Nedlands FC (W)	20	2	4	14	9	49	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sorrento (W)	Balcatta FC (W)
UWA-Nedlands FC (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Perth Redstar FC (W)	1-1 D	5-1 W
Fremantle City FC (W)	0-4 L	1-1 D
Hyundai NTC Women	1-4 L	4-1 W
Perth SC (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Subiaco AFC (W)	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Balcatta FC (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sorrento (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	UWA-Nedlands FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
09/08	Perth Redstar FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	0	1	D
02/08	Fremantle City FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-3	0-4	3	0	L
26/07	Hyundai NTC Women Australia WA Premier League Women	0-1	1-4	3	1	L
17/07	Perth SC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
12/07	Subiaco AFC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
05/07	Balcatta FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
28/06	Perth Redstar FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
21/06	Fremantle City FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	2-2	3-4	0	1	L
14/06	UWA-Nedlands FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	8	3	L

Balcatta FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Fremantle City FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	1	0	D
07/08	Subiaco AFC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	3-2	12	0	W
01/08	Perth SC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	2-1	7	2	W
25/07	Perth Redstar FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	3-0	5-1	5	2	W
19/07	UWA-Nedlands FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	2-1	7	1	W
12/07	Hyundai NTC Women Australia WA Premier League Women	3-0	4-1	5	0	W
05/07	Sorrento (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
28/06	Subiaco AFC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
20/06	Perth SC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
13/06	Fremantle City FC (W) Australia WA Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sorrento (W) vs Balcatta FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Balcatta FC (W) win (74%). Probabilities: Sorrento (W) 10%, draw 16%, Balcatta FC (W) 74%.

How many goals are expected in Sorrento (W) vs Balcatta FC (W)?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Sorrento (W) 0.88 · Balcatta FC (W) 2.63), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sorrento (W) vs Balcatta FC (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.