Prediction: Coastal Spirit vs Northern AFC
Team pages: Coastal Spirit · Northern AFC
- Northern AFC1-2Coastal Spirit
| Coastal Spirit | Draw | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 62% | 19% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coastal Spirit (rating 1528 vs 1461).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coastal Spirit | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2 | 1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 1.8 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coastal Spirit 1–0–0 Northern AFC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/26 New Zealand Southern League | Northern AFC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Coastal Spirit |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 6 | 37 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 25 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 46 | 26 | 24 |
| 5 | Nomads United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 31 | 13 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Coastal Spirit | Northern AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Ferrymead Bays | 0-6 L | 2-0 W |
| Nomads United | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Selwyn United | 5-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Nelson Suburbs | 3-5 L | 0-11 L |
| Cashmere Technical | 1-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Wanaka AFC | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Coastal Spirit (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coastal Spirit
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-6 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 27/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 17 | 1 | W |
Northern AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/07 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-11 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coastal Spirit vs Northern AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Coastal Spirit win (62%). Probabilities: Coastal Spirit 62%, draw 19%, Northern AFC 19%.
How many goals are expected in Coastal Spirit vs Northern AFC?
The model expects 3.84 goals (Coastal Spirit 2.5 · Northern AFC 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Coastal Spirit vs Northern AFC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.