Football · New Zealand Southern League · 08/08, 04:00

Prediction: Wanaka AFC vs Selwyn United

Team pages: Wanaka AFC · Selwyn United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Wanaka AFC1.51

Selwyn United1.87

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Wanaka AFC Draw Selwyn United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wanaka AFC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDLL

Selwyn United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Wanaka AFC 2–1 Selwyn United (3 last)

Selwyn United2-1Wanaka AFC
Selwyn United1-6Wanaka AFC
Wanaka AFC3-1Selwyn United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wanaka AFC 1406 · Selwyn United 1391

	Wanaka AFC	Draw	Selwyn United
Our model	31%	24%	45%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wanaka AFC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wanaka AFC	Selwyn United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3	0.7 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	2.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
X	4.33 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75
2	1.80 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.07 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 13.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:06 +10’	3.10	4.33	1.80
00:40 +11’	2.88▼	3.75▼	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +11’	2.73	3.64	2.07
23:13 +3’	3.85▲	3.15▼	1.74▼
00:48 +4’	2.84▼	3.22▲	2.05▲
02:55 +1’	2.87▲	3.27▲	2.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wanaka AFC 2–0–1 Selwyn United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	2-1 HT 1-1	Wanaka AFC
02/08/25 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	1-6 HT 1-3	Wanaka AFC
25/04/25 New Zealand Southern League	Wanaka AFC	3-1 HT 2-1	Selwyn United

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	14	13	1	0	66	6	40
2	Ferrymead Bays	15	10	2	3	31	16	32
3	Coastal Spirit	15	9	1	5	34	28	28
4	Nomads United	15	8	3	4	26	21	27
5	Nelson Suburbs	15	8	0	7	47	28	24
6	Northern AFC	15	5	2	8	15	35	17
7	Christchurch United	15	4	4	7	18	21	16
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	15	5	1	9	14	32	16
9	Selwyn United	15	2	1	12	15	45	7
10	Wanaka AFC	14	2	1	11	13	47	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wanaka AFC	Selwyn United
Dunedin City Royals FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Christchurch United	0-4 L	1-4 L
Northern AFC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Nelson Suburbs	0-6 L	1-2 L
Ferrymead Bays	0-5 L	0-2 L
Coastal Spirit	2-4 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Selwyn United (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wanaka AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
27/06	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
20/06	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-1	0-6	4	2	L
06/06	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-3	0-5	5	0	L
30/05	Northern AFC New Zealand Cup	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
23/05	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
16/05	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
02/05	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
27/04	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-0	2-4	2	1	L

Selwyn United

LLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
18/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
11/07	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
27/06	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
20/06	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	1-2	1-4	1	0	L
06/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	1-3	1-4	6	5	L
23/05	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
16/05	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
09/05	Christchurch United New Zealand Cup	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
02/05	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-3	0	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wanaka AFC vs Selwyn United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Selwyn United win (45%). Probabilities: Wanaka AFC 31%, draw 24%, Selwyn United 45%.

How many goals are expected in Wanaka AFC vs Selwyn United?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Wanaka AFC 1.51 · Selwyn United 1.87), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wanaka AFC vs Selwyn United?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.