Football · New Zealand Southern League · 08/08, 04:45
Prediction: Ferrymead Bays vs Nomads United
Team pages: Ferrymead Bays · Nomads United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Ferrymead Bays1.67
Nomads United1.09
1X2
Ferrymead Bays
Draw
Nomads United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ferrymead Bays
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Nomads United
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferrymead Bays
1–2–3
Nomads United
(6 last)
- Nomads United1-1Ferrymead Bays
- Nomads United1-2Ferrymead Bays
- Ferrymead Bays1-1Nomads United
- Ferrymead Bays1-3Nomads United
- Nomads United2-1Ferrymead Bays
- Ferrymead Bays0-2Nomads United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferrymead Bays 1543 · Nomads United 1516
| Ferrymead Bays | Draw | Nomads United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Nomads United: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferrymead Bays | Nomads United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.4 | 3.1 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferrymead Bays 1–2–3 Nomads United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 31/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 07/06/25 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Nomads United |
| 01/09/24 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Nomads United |
| 08/06/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 24/06/23 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Nomads United |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 28 |
| 4 | Nomads United | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 27 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 15 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 47 | 28 | 24 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 16 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 47 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferrymead Bays | Nomads United |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Spirit | 6-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Christchurch United | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Northern AFC | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Wanaka AFC | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Nelson Suburbs | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferrymead Bays
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 11/07 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Nomads United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferrymead Bays vs Nomads United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferrymead Bays win (51%). Probabilities: Ferrymead Bays 51%, draw 24%, Nomads United 25%.
How many goals are expected in Ferrymead Bays vs Nomads United?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Ferrymead Bays 1.67 · Nomads United 1.09), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferrymead Bays vs Nomads United?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.