Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 02/10, 20:45
Prediction: Finn Harps vs Kerry FC
Team pages: Finn Harps · Kerry FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Finn Harps1.16
Kerry FC1.54
1X2
Finn Harps
Draw
Kerry FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Finn Harps
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Kerry FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Finn Harps
3–1–2
Kerry FC
(6 last)
- Kerry FC2-1Finn Harps
- Finn Harps1-0Kerry FC
- Kerry FC1-0Finn Harps
- Finn Harps1-1Kerry FC
- Kerry FC0-1Finn Harps
- Finn Harps4-2Kerry FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kerry FC (rating 1407 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Finn Harps: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Finn Harps | Kerry FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.8 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.3 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Harps 3–1–2 Kerry FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Kerry FC | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Finn Harps |
| 08/05/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kerry FC |
| 20/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Kerry FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Finn Harps |
| 13/10/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Kerry FC |
| 08/08/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Kerry FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Finn Harps |
| 18/04/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Kerry FC |
Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 69 | 30 | 71 |
| 2 | Bray Wanderers | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 64 | 45 | 53 |
| 3 | UCD | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 57 | 48 | 49 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 42 | 49 | 46 |
| 5 | Kerry FC | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 39 | 45 |
| 6 | Athlone Town | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 39 | 45 |
| 7 | Longford Town | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 41 | 44 |
| 8 | Wexford FC | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 48 | 40 |
| 9 | Treaty United FC | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 48 | 36 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 33 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 66 | 25 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Finn Harps | Kerry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Treaty United FC | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Longford Town | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Wexford FC | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Athlone Town | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| UCD | 4-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Cobh Ramblers | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Bray Wanderers | 0-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Cork City | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Kerry FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Harps
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/09 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 11/09 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/07 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Kerry FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/08 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 03/08 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 31/07 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Finn Harps vs Kerry FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kerry FC win (45%). Probabilities: Finn Harps 27%, draw 28%, Kerry FC 45%.
How many goals are expected in Finn Harps vs Kerry FC?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Finn Harps 1.16 · Kerry FC 1.54), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Kerry FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.