Prediction: Sportivo Belgrano vs Independiente Chivilcoy
Expected goals: 2.25 (Sportivo Belgrano 1.63 · Independiente Chivilcoy 0.63). The model gives 60% home, 27% draw, 13% away. Over 2 goals (53%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Recent form leaves Sportivo Belgrano with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; Independiente Chivilcoy has piled up 1-4-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Belgrano won 5 and Independiente Chivilcoy 0, with 1 draw.
| Sportivo Belgrano | Draw | Independiente Chivilcoy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Market | 60% | 27% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Belgrano (rating 1574 vs 1433).
- H2H favours Sportivo Belgrano: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo Belgrano | Independiente Chivilcoy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0 | 0 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.4 | 1.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Belgrano 5–1–0 Independiente Chivilcoy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Argentina Torneo A | Independiente Chivilcoy | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Belgrano |
| 16/08/25 Argentina Torneo A | Independiente Chivilcoy | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Sportivo Belgrano |
| 12/07/25 Argentina Torneo A | Sportivo Belgrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Chivilcoy |
| 10/05/25 Argentina Torneo A | Independiente Chivilcoy | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Sportivo Belgrano |
| 23/06/24 Argentina Torneo A | Sportivo Belgrano | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Chivilcoy |
| 27/04/24 Argentina Torneo A | Independiente Chivilcoy | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Belgrano |
Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportivo Belgrano | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | CA Douglas Haig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 25 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 22 |
| 6 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21 |
| 7 | Independiente Chivilcoy | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 17 |
| 8 | Escobar FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 17 |
| 9 | Club Atlético El Linqueño | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 13 |
| 10 | Gimnasia y Esgrima | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 13 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportivo Belgrano | Independiente Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético El Linqueño | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| CA Douglas Haig | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| Defensores de Belgrano VR | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Gimnasia y Esgrima | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Escobar FC | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Sportivo Las Parejas | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Sportivo Belgrano (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 15/06 | Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
Independiente Chivilcoy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 14/06 | Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 07/06 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sportivo Belgrano vs Independiente Chivilcoy?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Belgrano win (60%). Probabilities: Sportivo Belgrano 60%, draw 27%, Independiente Chivilcoy 13%.
How many goals are expected in Sportivo Belgrano vs Independiente Chivilcoy?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Sportivo Belgrano 1.63 · Independiente Chivilcoy 0.63), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sportivo Belgrano vs Independiente Chivilcoy?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.