Prediction: CA Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson
Expected goals: 1.62 (CA Alvarado 1.3 · Germinal de Rawson 0.32). The model gives 62% home, 28% draw, 10% away. Under 2 goals (60%) and not both to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-0.
On recent form, CA Alvarado is 5-3-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Germinal de Rawson 4-4-2 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, CA Alvarado won 0 and Germinal de Rawson 1.
| CA Alvarado | Draw | Germinal de Rawson | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 31% | 8% |
| Market | 64% | 26% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Alvarado | Germinal de Rawson | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.6 | 0.9 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Alvarado 0–0–1 Germinal de Rawson
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Argentina Torneo A | Germinal de Rawson | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CA Alvarado |
Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo B Blanca | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | CA Alvarado | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Club Villa Mitre | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Germinal de Rawson | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Sol de Mayo | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
| 7 | Santamarina Tandil | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 12 |
| 8 | Guillermo Brown | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| 9 | Club Circulo Deportivo | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Alvarado | Germinal de Rawson |
|---|---|---|
| Club Villa Mitre | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Club Circulo Deportivo | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Kimberley Mar del Plata | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Sol de Mayo | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Guillermo Brown | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Olimpo B Blanca | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Santamarina Tandil | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Alvarado (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Alvarado
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/06 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Germinal de Rawson
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 07/06 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Alvarado win (62%). Probabilities: CA Alvarado 62%, draw 28%, Germinal de Rawson 10%.
How many goals are expected in CA Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
The model expects 1.62 goals (CA Alvarado 1.3 · Germinal de Rawson 0.32), with a 60% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
The model gives a 60% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.