Football · New Zealand Southern League · 01/08, 02:30
Prediction: Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs
Team pages: Nomads United · Nelson Suburbs
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.63Total
Nomads United1.63
Nelson Suburbs2
1X2
Nomads United
Draw
Nelson Suburbs
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nomads United
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Nelson Suburbs
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nomads United
3–2–1
Nelson Suburbs
(6 last)
- Nomads United0-2Nelson Suburbs
- Nelson Suburbs1-4Nomads United
- Nelson Suburbs2-2Nomads United
- Nomads United3-0Nelson Suburbs
- Nelson Suburbs2-2Nomads United
- Nomads United2-0Nelson Suburbs
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nomads United 1536 · Nelson Suburbs 1598
| Nomads United | Draw | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Market | 31% | 23% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nelson Suburbs (rating 1536 vs 1598).
- H2H favours Nomads United: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nomads United | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 4.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.1 | 2.5 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nomads United 3–2–1 Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 New Zealand Cup | Nomads United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 03/05/26 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Nomads United |
| 24/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Nomads United |
| 24/05/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 11/08/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Nomads United |
| 04/05/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nomads United | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 6 | 37 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 25 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 46 | 26 | 24 |
| 5 | Nomads United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 31 | 13 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nomads United | Nelson Suburbs |
|---|---|---|
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Coastal Spirit | 0-1 L | 5-3 W |
| Christchurch United | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Northern AFC | 2-0 W | 11-0 W |
| Wanaka AFC | 2-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Ferrymead Bays | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Nelson Suburbs (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nomads United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 11-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
2-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nelson Suburbs win (46%). Probabilities: Nomads United 31%, draw 23%, Nelson Suburbs 46%.
How many goals are expected in Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs?
The model expects 3.63 goals (Nomads United 1.63 · Nelson Suburbs 2), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.