Football · New Zealand Southern League · 01/08, 05:00

Prediction: Selwyn United vs Ferrymead Bays

Team pages: Selwyn United · Ferrymead Bays

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

Selwyn United1.15

Ferrymead Bays3.03

1X2

11% 14% 75%

Selwyn United Draw Ferrymead Bays

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Selwyn United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Ferrymead Bays 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLLDW

Head-to-head

Selwyn United 0–1–5 Ferrymead Bays (6 last)

Ferrymead Bays3-0Selwyn United
Ferrymead Bays1-1Selwyn United
Ferrymead Bays4-1Selwyn United
Selwyn United0-5Ferrymead Bays
Selwyn United2-4Ferrymead Bays
Ferrymead Bays3-2Selwyn United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Selwyn United 1390 · Ferrymead Bays 1534

	Selwyn United	Draw	Ferrymead Bays
Our model	11%	15%	74%
Market	12%	13%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferrymead Bays (rating 1390 vs 1534).
H2H favours Ferrymead Bays: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Selwyn United	Ferrymead Bays
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 3.3	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.8	1.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

18.00

X7.00

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.93

2 (-2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 8.00▼	Bet365 8.00
X	8.00 → 7.00▼	Bet365 7.00
2	1.14 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +9’	11.00	8.00	1.14
16:11 +4’	8.00▼	7.00▼	1.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Selwyn United 0–1–5 Ferrymead Bays

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 New Zealand Southern League	Ferrymead Bays	3-0 HT 2-0	Selwyn United
28/06/25 New Zealand Southern League	Ferrymead Bays	1-1 HT 0-0	Selwyn United
30/05/25 New Zealand Cup	Ferrymead Bays	4-1 HT 1-0	Selwyn United
05/04/25 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	0-5 HT 0-4	Ferrymead Bays
10/08/24 New Zealand Southern League	Selwyn United	2-4 HT 1-3	Ferrymead Bays
04/05/24 New Zealand Southern League	Ferrymead Bays	3-2 HT 3-0	Selwyn United

Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	13	12	1	0	61	6	37
2	Ferrymead Bays	14	9	2	3	29	16	29
3	Coastal Spirit	14	8	1	5	29	28	25
4	Nelson Suburbs	14	8	0	6	46	26	24
5	Nomads United	14	7	3	4	24	20	24
6	Northern AFC	14	5	2	7	15	30	17
7	Christchurch United	14	4	4	6	18	16	16
8	Dunedin City Royals FC	14	4	1	9	12	31	13
9	Selwyn United	14	2	1	11	15	43	7
10	Wanaka AFC	13	2	1	10	12	45	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Selwyn United	Ferrymead Bays
Nelson Suburbs	1-2 L	3-2 W
Dunedin City Royals FC	1-2 L	3-0 W
Coastal Spirit	0-5 L	6-0 W
Christchurch United	1-4 L	0-0 D
Cashmere Technical	1-4 L	0-4 L
Northern AFC	1-3 L	0-2 L
Wanaka AFC	2-1 W	5-0 W
Nomads United	3-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ferrymead Bays (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Selwyn United

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
11/07	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
27/06	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
20/06	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	1-2	1-4	1	0	L
06/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	1-3	1-4	6	5	L
23/05	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
16/05	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
09/05	Christchurch United New Zealand Cup	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
02/05	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
27/04	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	3-5	6	4	L

Ferrymead Bays

WWDWWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League	4-0	6-0	6	6	W
11/07	Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
27/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League	0-4	0-4	5	0	L
20/06	Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
12/06	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup	2-3	3-4	2	3	L
06/06	Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League	3-0	5-0	6	0	W
24/05	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League	3-2	3-2	5	4	W
16/05	Nomads United New Zealand Southern League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
02/05	Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League	2-0	3-0	4	0	W
27/04	Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League	1-0	3-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Selwyn United vs Ferrymead Bays?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferrymead Bays win (75%). Probabilities: Selwyn United 11%, draw 14%, Ferrymead Bays 75%.

How many goals are expected in Selwyn United vs Ferrymead Bays?

The model expects 4.18 goals (Selwyn United 1.15 · Ferrymead Bays 3.03), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Selwyn United vs Ferrymead Bays?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.