Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 23/08, 12:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova II vs Skanstes SK

Team pages: SK Super Nova II · Skanstes SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

SK Super Nova II1.77

Skanstes SK1.57

1X2

42% 25% 33%

SK Super Nova II Draw Skanstes SK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLDLWL

Skanstes SK 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLLWW

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova II 0–1–0 Skanstes SK (1 last)

Skanstes SK1-1SK Super Nova II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova II 1494 · Skanstes SK 1466

	SK Super Nova II	Draw	Skanstes SK
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	42%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova II	Skanstes SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.5	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:05 +2’	1.91	3.75	3.10
05:58 +6’	2.15▲	3.70▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:10 +4’	2.55	3.30	2.33
05:07	2.48▼	3.27▼	2.41▲
06:02 +2’	2.42▼	3.27	2.46▲
07:03 +3’	2.42	3.29▲	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova II 0–1–0 Skanstes SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	1-1 HT 0-1	SK Super Nova II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	17	14	2	1	48	15	44
2	Metta/LU	16	13	2	1	69	14	41
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	16	11	3	2	27	18	36
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	16	10	5	1	34	15	35
5	JDFS Alberts	17	9	4	4	35	24	31
6	Marupes SC	18	8	1	9	29	30	25
7	SK Super Nova II	17	6	5	6	24	25	23
8	Riga FC II	16	6	2	8	23	30	20
9	Skanstes SK	16	6	1	9	30	32	19
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	17	3	3	11	23	48	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	16	2	4	10	19	43	10
14	Rezeknes FA	16	1	2	13	13	46	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova II	Skanstes SK
Marupes SC	1-2 L	4-2 W
JFK Ventspils	2-0 W	0-3 L
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-3 L	0-2 L
JDFS Alberts	1-1 D	1-4 L
RFS II	1-1 D	4-0 W
Metta/LU	3-7 L	1-3 L
Valmiera FC	0-0 D	0-3 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Skanstes SK (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova II

WDLWDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	10	L
25/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
19/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
13/06	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	3-7	5	3	L
26/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	5	W

Skanstes SK

WLLWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
01/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
25/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
11/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-3	10	4	L
04/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
28/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-2	3	1	W
14/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	7	7	L
24/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	2	L
10/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	4-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova II vs Skanstes SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Super Nova II win (42%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova II 42%, draw 25%, Skanstes SK 33%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova II vs Skanstes SK?

The model expects 3.34 goals (SK Super Nova II 1.77 · Skanstes SK 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova II vs Skanstes SK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.