Prediction: FC Altai Semey vs Tobol Kostanay
Expected goals: 2.49 (FC Altai Semey 1.15 · Tobol Kostanay 1.35). The model gives 31% home, 28% draw, 41% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, FC Altai Semey is 1-5-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Tobol Kostanay 4-2-4 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for FC Altai Semey and 1 for Tobol Kostanay.
| FC Altai Semey | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tobol Kostanay (rating 1460 vs 1500).
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Altai Semey | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.9 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Altai Semey 0–0–1 Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Altai Semey |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 37 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Ulytau | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 23 |
| 7 | FK Aktobe | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 11 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 15 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 16 | FC Altai Semey | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Altai Semey | Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|
| FC Astana | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Ordabasy | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| FK Atyrau | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tobol Kostanay (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Altai Semey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Altai Semey vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tobol Kostanay win (41%). Probabilities: FC Altai Semey 31%, draw 28%, Tobol Kostanay 41%.
How many goals are expected in FC Altai Semey vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.49 goals (FC Altai Semey 1.15 · Tobol Kostanay 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Altai Semey vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.