Prediction: Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Irtysh Pavlodar
Expected goals: 2.27 (Kaisar Kyzylorda 1.32 · Irtysh Pavlodar 0.95). The model gives 44% home, 30% draw, 26% away. Under 2.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Kaisar Kyzylorda is 3-4-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Irtysh Pavlodar 0-4-6 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 5 wins for Kaisar Kyzylorda and 1 for Irtysh Pavlodar.
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | Draw | Irtysh Pavlodar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaisar Kyzylorda (rating 1501 vs 1431).
- H2H favours Kaisar Kyzylorda: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | Irtysh Pavlodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 1.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kaisar Kyzylorda 5–0–1 Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
| 08/03/20 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 19/10/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
| 31/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 08/05/19 Kazakhstan Cup | Irtysh Pavlodar | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
| 30/03/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 37 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Ulytau | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 23 |
| 7 | FK Aktobe | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 11 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 15 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 16 | FC Altai Semey | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kaisar Kyzylorda | Irtysh Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| FK Ulytau | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| FC Elimai Semey | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Kairat Almaty | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Aktobe | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Kaisar Kyzylorda (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaisar Kyzylorda
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 02/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kaisar Kyzylorda win (44%). Probabilities: Kaisar Kyzylorda 44%, draw 30%, Irtysh Pavlodar 26%.
How many goals are expected in Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Kaisar Kyzylorda 1.32 · Irtysh Pavlodar 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.