Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 16/10, 20:45
Prediction: Drogheda United vs Derry City
Team pages: Drogheda United · Derry City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Drogheda United1.3
Derry City1.48
1X2
Drogheda United
Draw
Derry City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Drogheda United
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Derry City
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Drogheda United
1–3–2
Derry City
(6 last)
- Derry City2-0Drogheda United
- Drogheda United1-0Derry City
- Derry City2-2Drogheda United
- Drogheda United1-1Derry City
- Derry City1-1Drogheda United
- Derry City3-0Drogheda United
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (rating 1475 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Derry City: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Drogheda United | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Drogheda United 1–3–2 Derry City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Drogheda United |
| 08/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Derry City |
| 20/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Drogheda United |
| 26/09/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Derry City |
| 16/08/25 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | Derry City | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Drogheda United |
| 27/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Drogheda United |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 52 | 32 | 62 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 38 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 47 | 46 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 48 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford FC | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 39 | 54 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 59 | 23 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Drogheda United | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 1-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Bohemians Dublin | 1-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Shelbourne | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Sligo Rovers | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| St Patricks | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Galway United | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Drogheda United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/09 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/09 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/09 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 28/08 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 10/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/08 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Derry City win (40%). Probabilities: Drogheda United 32%, draw 28%, Derry City 40%.
How many goals are expected in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Drogheda United 1.3 · Derry City 1.48), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.