Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 23/10, 20:45
Prediction: Derry City vs Dundalk
Team pages: Derry City · Dundalk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.67Total
Derry City2.3
Dundalk1.37
1X2
Derry City
Draw
Dundalk
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Dundalk
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derry City
2–3–1
Dundalk
(6 last)
- Derry City4-2Dundalk
- Dundalk2-1Derry City
- Dundalk2-2Derry City
- Derry City2-2Dundalk
- Dundalk0-2Derry City
- Derry City1-1Dundalk
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (rating 1540 vs 1456).
- H2H favours Derry City: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City | Dundalk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.2 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 2–3–1 Dundalk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | Derry City | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Dundalk |
| 29/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Dundalk | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Derry City |
| 10/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Dundalk | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Derry City |
| 13/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Dundalk |
| 18/10/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Dundalk | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Derry City |
| 09/08/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dundalk |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 35 | 65 |
| 2 | Bohemians Dublin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 62 |
| 3 | St Patricks | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 46 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 51 | 56 | 42 |
| 6 | Derry City | 33 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 45 | 44 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 44 | 48 | 41 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 41 | 54 | 37 |
| 9 | Waterford FC | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 56 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 34 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 26 | 60 | 24 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derry City | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Galway United | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Waterford FC | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Shelbourne | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Shamrock Rovers | 3-3 D | 2-3 L |
| Bohemians Dublin | 3-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Sligo Rovers | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| St Patricks | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 18/09 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/08 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/08 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Dundalk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 02/10 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/09 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 14/09 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 28/08 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 31/07 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 24/07 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City vs Dundalk?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City win (57%). Probabilities: Derry City 57%, draw 21%, Dundalk 21%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Dundalk?
The model expects 3.67 goals (Derry City 2.3 · Dundalk 1.37), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.