Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 19/10, 21:00

Prediction: Derry City vs St Patricks

Team pages: Derry City · St Patricks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Derry City1.02

St Patricks1.39

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Derry City Draw St Patricks

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Derry City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDWDWL

St Patricks 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Derry City 2–4–0 St Patricks (6 last)

St Patricks1-1Derry City
Derry City0-0St Patricks
St Patricks0-0Derry City
Derry City2-2St Patricks
St Patricks0-1Derry City
Derry City1-0St Patricks

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derry City 1544 · St Patricks 1531

	Derry City	Draw	St Patricks
Our model	26%	30%	44%
Market	28%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Derry City: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derry City	St Patricks
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.95 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:23 +7’	3.40	3.40	1.95
14:03 +13’	3.30▼	3.40	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 2–4–0 St Patricks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	1-1 HT 1-0	Derry City
22/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	0-0 HT 0-0	St Patricks
16/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	0-0 HT 0-0	Derry City
29/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	2-2 HT 0-1	St Patricks
23/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	0-1 HT 0-1	Derry City
05/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	1-0 HT 0-0	St Patricks

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	19	8	7	54	35	65
2	Bohemians Dublin	34	18	8	8	60	41	62
3	St Patricks	33	17	8	8	53	27	59
4	Shelbourne	34	11	13	10	49	47	46
5	Dundalk	34	10	12	12	51	56	42
6	Derry City	33	9	14	10	45	44	41
7	Galway United	33	10	11	12	44	48	41
8	Drogheda United	34	9	10	15	41	54	37
9	Waterford FC	33	7	13	13	45	56	34
10	Sligo Rovers	34	5	9	20	26	60	24

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derry City	St Patricks
Drogheda United	0-2 L	2-0 W
Waterford FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
Shelbourne	1-0 W	1-2 L
Shamrock Rovers	3-3 D	2-0 W
Sligo Rovers	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Derry City (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derry City

WLDWLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
18/09	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/09	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
11/09	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
30/08	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
21/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	3-5	3	4	L
07/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
02/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
03/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-4	5	3	L
26/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W

St Patricks

DDDWWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-2	12	6	L
19/09	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
14/09	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	4-0	3	3	W
11/09	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
28/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
21/08	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
09/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
10/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derry City vs St Patricks?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Patricks win (45%). Probabilities: Derry City 27%, draw 28%, St Patricks 45%.

How many goals are expected in Derry City vs St Patricks?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Derry City 1.02 · St Patricks 1.39), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patricks?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.