Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Expected goals: 2.75 (Kairat Almaty 2.04 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 0.71). The model gives 68% home, 20% draw, 12% away. Under 3 goals (56%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Over its last 10 matches, Kairat Almaty sits at 6-3-1 (W-D-L), while Okzhetpes Kokshetau arrives on a 4-4-2 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Kairat Almaty won 4 and Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1, with 1 draw.
| Kairat Almaty | Draw | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kairat Almaty (rating 1582 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kairat Almaty | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 3.1 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kairat Almaty 4–1–1 Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 31/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 24/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 15/07/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 03/06/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 27/09/20 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Kairat Almaty |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 37 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Ulytau | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 23 |
| 7 | FK Aktobe | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 11 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 15 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 16 | FC Altai Semey | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kairat Almaty | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kyzylzhar | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Atyrau | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| FK Zhenys | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kairat Almaty
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 28/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kairat Almaty win (68%). Probabilities: Kairat Almaty 68%, draw 20%, Okzhetpes Kokshetau 12%.
How many goals are expected in Kairat Almaty vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Kairat Almaty 2.04 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 0.71), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.