Football · Brazil Serie C · 27/07, 01:30
Prediction: Amazonas FC vs Paysandu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Amazonas FC1.27
Paysandu1.51
1X2
Amazonas FC
Draw
Paysandu
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Amazonas FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Paysandu
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Amazonas FC
2–3–1
Paysandu
(6 last)
- Paysandu2-2Amazonas FC
- Amazonas FC1-1Paysandu
- Paysandu0-1Amazonas FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amazonas FC 1423 · Paysandu 1506
| Amazonas FC | Draw | Paysandu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paysandu (rating 1423 vs 1506).
- H2H favours Amazonas FC: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Amazonas FC | Paysandu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 4 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.3 | 6.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Amazonas FC 2–3–1 Paysandu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/25 Brazil Serie B | Paysandu | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Amazonas FC |
| 24/07/25 Brazil Serie B | Amazonas FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Paysandu |
| 06/09/24 Brazil Serie B | Paysandu | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Amazonas FC |
| 18/05/24 Brazil Serie B | Amazonas FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Paysandu |
| 01/10/23 Brazil Serie C | Paysandu | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Amazonas FC |
| 09/09/23 Brazil Serie C | Amazonas FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Paysandu |
Standings · Brazil Serie C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter de Limeira | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Brusque | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 24 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Paysandu | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | Guarani | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Botafogo PB | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | Maringa FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 22 |
| 8 | Ferroviaria SP | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Caxias RS | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
| 10 | Floresta EC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | Ituano | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
| 12 | Ypiranga RS | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
| 13 | Volta Redonda | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 18 |
| 14 | Amazonas FC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 17 |
| 15 | Maranhao | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| 16 | Figueirense | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 17 |
| 17 | Itabaiana | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 16 |
| 18 | Barra FC | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| 19 | AD Confianca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Anapolis FC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Amazonas FC | Paysandu |
|---|---|---|
| Inter de Limeira | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Anapolis FC | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Guarani | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Floresta EC | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Figueirense | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Paysandu (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amazonas FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 11 | L |
| 07/07 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-3 | 12 | 10 | L |
| 21/06 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Guarani Brazil Serie C |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 10 | D |
Paysandu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Guarani Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 1-3 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde |
1-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 10 | W |
| 05/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde |
0-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 29/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Copa Verde |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 26/05 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amazonas FC vs Paysandu?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Paysandu win (41%). Probabilities: Amazonas FC 30%, draw 28%, Paysandu 41%.
How many goals are expected in Amazonas FC vs Paysandu?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Amazonas FC 1.27 · Paysandu 1.51), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Amazonas FC vs Paysandu?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.