Football · Brazil Serie C · 25/07, 23:30

Prediction: AD Confianca vs Itabaiana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.81Total

AD Confianca1.08

Itabaiana0.73

1X2

44% 32% 24%

AD Confianca Draw Itabaiana

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

AD Confianca 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLWDLL

Itabaiana 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDLWWW

Head-to-head

AD Confianca 3–2–1 Itabaiana (6 last)

Itabaiana0-1AD Confianca
Itabaiana0-2AD Confianca
AD Confianca1-2Itabaiana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Confianca 1470 · Itabaiana 1495

	AD Confianca	Draw	Itabaiana
Our model	42%	35%	23%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AD Confianca: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Confianca	Itabaiana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.27 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:31 +2’	2.00	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:24	1.83	3.01	4.26
23:16	1.88▲	3.07▲	4.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Confianca 3–2–1 Itabaiana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Itabaiana	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Confianca
28/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Itabaiana	0-2 HT 0-2	AD Confianca
26/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	AD Confianca	1-2 HT 0-0	Itabaiana
08/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	AD Confianca	1-0 HT 0-0	Itabaiana
12/07/25 Brazil Serie C	Itabaiana	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Confianca
29/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	AD Confianca	1-1 HT 0-1	Itabaiana

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	14	7	4	3	17	14	25
2	Brusque	14	7	3	4	20	15	24
3	Santa Cruz FC	14	7	3	4	15	10	24
4	Paysandu	14	7	2	5	22	19	23
5	Guarani	14	6	5	3	25	14	23
6	Botafogo PB	14	7	1	6	19	15	22
7	Maringa FC	14	6	4	4	27	24	22
8	Ferroviaria SP	14	6	4	4	15	12	22
9	Caxias RS	14	5	6	3	13	10	21
10	Floresta EC	14	5	5	4	15	14	20
11	Ituano	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
12	Ypiranga RS	14	5	3	6	17	19	18
13	Volta Redonda	14	5	3	6	10	15	18
14	Amazonas FC	14	5	2	7	13	19	17
15	Maranhao	14	4	5	5	11	14	17
16	Figueirense	14	4	5	5	12	18	17
17	Itabaiana	14	4	4	6	12	17	16
18	Barra FC	14	3	6	5	17	16	15
19	AD Confianca	14	3	2	9	8	14	11
20	Anapolis FC	14	2	3	9	9	18	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Confianca	Itabaiana
Volta Redonda	0-1 L	0-1 L
Floresta EC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Figueirense	0-0 D	1-0 W
Ituano	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Itabaiana (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Confianca

LLWDLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
05/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
29/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
23/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
15/06	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
30/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
24/05	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/05	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
15/05	Gremio Copa do Brasil	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
11/05	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	3	6	L

Itabaiana

LDWDLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/07	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
28/06	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
20/06	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
14/06	Ituano Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-2	2	6	D
30/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
24/05	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
17/05	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
09/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
04/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-4	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Confianca vs Itabaiana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Confianca win (44%). Probabilities: AD Confianca 44%, draw 32%, Itabaiana 24%.

How many goals are expected in AD Confianca vs Itabaiana?

The model expects 1.81 goals (AD Confianca 1.08 · Itabaiana 0.73), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Confianca vs Itabaiana?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.