Football · Brazil Serie C · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: Paysandu vs Maringa FC

Team pages: Paysandu · Maringa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Paysandu1.68

Maringa FC1.13

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Paysandu Draw Maringa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Paysandu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWLW

Maringa FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWDLDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paysandu 1489 · Maringa FC 1511

	Paysandu	Draw	Maringa FC
Our model	49%	26%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paysandu	Maringa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.1	3.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.88
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.38 ★
2	3.40 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.78

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:38 +2’	1.91	3.25	3.40
05:51 +7’	1.83▼	3.30▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:51 +1’	1.82	3.43	3.67
01:04 +1’	1.88▲	3.38▼	3.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	18	9	4	5	26	20	31
2	Botafogo PB	18	9	3	6	26	19	30
3	Paysandu	18	9	2	7	26	26	29
4	Inter de Limeira	18	8	5	5	22	20	29
5	Santa Cruz FC	18	8	4	6	19	14	28
6	Ypiranga RS	18	8	4	6	25	22	28
7	Guarani	18	7	6	5	32	22	27
8	Ferroviaria SP	18	7	6	5	21	15	27
9	Maranhao	18	7	6	5	18	16	27
10	Maringa FC	18	7	6	5	31	30	27
11	Floresta EC	18	7	6	5	20	20	27
12	Amazonas FC	18	7	4	7	19	21	25
13	Figueirense	18	6	7	5	17	21	25
14	Caxias RS	18	6	6	6	17	16	24
15	Ituano	18	6	4	8	18	19	22
16	Volta Redonda	18	6	3	9	13	23	21
17	Anapolis FC	18	5	3	10	16	21	18
18	Barra FC	18	4	6	8	19	21	18
19	Itabaiana	18	4	5	9	14	25	17
20	AD Confianca	18	3	4	11	11	19	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paysandu	Maringa FC
AD Confianca	2-1 W	1-1 D
Amazonas FC	1-2 L	0-3 L
Maranhao	1-0 W	0-0 D
Inter de Limeira	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paysandu (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paysandu

LLWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
18/08	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-2	0-4	4	11	L
11/08	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
27/07	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
12/07	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-2	3-2	10	7	W
05/07	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
27/06	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	0-2	1-3	14	4	L
21/06	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
14/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-2	12	8	L
01/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	1	11	L

Maringa FC

LDDDWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
09/08	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-2	0-3	15	6	L
28/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
12/07	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
27/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-2	1	6	D
21/06	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
16/06	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
30/05	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-2	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paysandu vs Maringa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paysandu win (49%). Probabilities: Paysandu 49%, draw 27%, Maringa FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Paysandu vs Maringa FC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Paysandu 1.68 · Maringa FC 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Paysandu vs Maringa FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.