Football · Brazil Serie C · 15/08, 22:00

Prediction: Amazonas FC vs Botafogo PB

Team pages: Amazonas FC · Botafogo PB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Amazonas FC1.27

Botafogo PB1.13

1X2

38% 30% 31%

Amazonas FC Draw Botafogo PB

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Amazonas FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLLWW

Botafogo PB 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Amazonas FC 1–1–1 Botafogo PB (3 last)

Amazonas FC2-0Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB2-1Amazonas FC
Amazonas FC0-0Botafogo PB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amazonas FC 1477 · Botafogo PB 1556

	Amazonas FC	Draw	Botafogo PB
Our model	38%	30%	31%
Market	38%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botafogo PB (rating 1477 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amazonas FC	Botafogo PB
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +3’	2.35	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:18 +1’	2.56	2.81	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Amazonas FC 1–1–1 Botafogo PB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/23 Brazil Serie C	Amazonas FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo PB
03/09/23 Brazil Serie C	Botafogo PB	2-1 HT 1-0	Amazonas FC
07/06/23 Brazil Serie C	Amazonas FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo PB

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	16	8	4	4	20	17	28
2	Brusque	16	8	3	5	22	17	27
3	Botafogo PB	16	8	2	6	23	18	26
4	Paysandu	16	8	2	6	25	22	26
5	Guarani	16	7	5	4	29	17	26
6	Santa Cruz FC	16	7	4	5	17	13	25
7	Ypiranga RS	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
8	Caxias RS	16	6	6	4	16	12	24
9	Ferroviaria SP	16	6	6	4	17	14	24
10	Amazonas FC	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
11	Maringa FC	16	6	5	5	28	28	23
12	Ituano	16	6	4	6	18	17	22
13	Floresta EC	16	5	6	5	17	19	21
14	Maranhao	16	5	6	5	13	15	21
15	Figueirense	16	5	6	5	15	20	21
16	Volta Redonda	16	5	3	8	11	21	18
17	Itabaiana	16	4	5	7	13	20	17
18	Anapolis FC	16	4	3	9	15	20	15
19	Barra FC	16	3	6	7	17	19	15
20	AD Confianca	16	3	3	10	10	17	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amazonas FC	Botafogo PB
Maringa FC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Inter de Limeira	0-1 L	0-1 L
Volta Redonda	0-3 L	2-0 W
Anapolis FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo PB (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amazonas FC

LLLWDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	3-0	0	6	W
27/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
12/07	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	4	11	L
07/07	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
01/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-3	12	10	L
21/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
13/06	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
31/05	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
24/05	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
17/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	1-2	2-3	6	8	L

Botafogo PB

LLWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
26/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
13/07	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
06/07	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	1	8	W
01/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
20/06	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
16/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	0	7	D
30/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
26/05	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
19/05	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amazonas FC vs Botafogo PB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Amazonas FC win (38%). Probabilities: Amazonas FC 38%, draw 30%, Botafogo PB 31%.

How many goals are expected in Amazonas FC vs Botafogo PB?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Amazonas FC 1.27 · Botafogo PB 1.13), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Amazonas FC vs Botafogo PB?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.