Football · Brazil Serie C · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB

Team pages: Itabaiana · Botafogo PB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Itabaiana1.23

Botafogo PB1.14

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Itabaiana Draw Botafogo PB

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Itabaiana 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWDLLL

Botafogo PB 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Itabaiana 1–1–1 Botafogo PB (3 last)

Itabaiana3-3Botafogo PB
Itabaiana1-0Botafogo PB
Itabaiana0-1Botafogo PB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Itabaiana 1468 · Botafogo PB 1582

	Itabaiana	Draw	Botafogo PB
Our model	37%	30%	32%
Market	37%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botafogo PB (rating 1468 vs 1582).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Itabaiana	Botafogo PB
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X2.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.51
X	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.01 ★
2	3.00 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:36 +4’	2.30	2.90	3.00
05:37 +20’	2.45▲	2.90	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:51	2.51	3.01	2.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Itabaiana 1–1–1 Botafogo PB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Itabaiana	3-3 HT 1-0	Botafogo PB
01/07/25 Brazil Serie C	Itabaiana	1-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo PB
24/03/24 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Itabaiana	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo PB

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	18	9	4	5	26	20	31
2	Botafogo PB	18	9	3	6	26	19	30
3	Paysandu	18	9	2	7	26	26	29
4	Inter de Limeira	18	8	5	5	22	20	29
5	Santa Cruz FC	18	8	4	6	19	14	28
6	Ypiranga RS	18	8	4	6	25	22	28
7	Guarani	18	7	6	5	32	22	27
8	Ferroviaria SP	18	7	6	5	21	15	27
9	Maranhao	18	7	6	5	18	16	27
10	Maringa FC	18	7	6	5	31	30	27
11	Floresta EC	18	7	6	5	20	20	27
12	Amazonas FC	18	7	4	7	19	21	25
13	Figueirense	18	6	7	5	17	21	25
14	Caxias RS	18	6	6	6	17	16	24
15	Ituano	18	6	4	8	18	19	22
16	Volta Redonda	18	6	3	9	13	23	21
17	Anapolis FC	18	5	3	10	16	21	18
18	Barra FC	18	4	6	8	19	21	18
19	Itabaiana	18	4	5	9	14	25	17
20	AD Confianca	18	3	4	11	11	19	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Itabaiana	Botafogo PB
Caxias RS	0-2 L	2-1 W
AD Confianca	1-1 D	2-0 W
Brusque	1-0 W	2-0 W
Amazonas FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Anapolis FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Volta Redonda	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo PB (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Itabaiana

LDLWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	1-3	1-4	5	4	L
16/08	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
09/08	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
25/07	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
14/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/07	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
28/06	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
20/06	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
14/06	Ituano Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-2	2	6	D
30/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	7	4	L

Botafogo PB

WDWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
15/08	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
08/08	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
26/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
13/07	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
06/07	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	1	8	W
01/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
20/06	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
16/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	0	7	D
30/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Itabaiana win (37%). Probabilities: Itabaiana 37%, draw 31%, Botafogo PB 32%.

How many goals are expected in Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Itabaiana 1.23 · Botafogo PB 1.14), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.