Football · Brazil Serie C · 25/07, 22:00

Prediction: Santa Cruz FC vs Figueirense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Santa Cruz FC1.2

Figueirense0.81

1X2

45% 30% 25%

Santa Cruz FC Draw Figueirense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Cruz FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWLWWW

Figueirense 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDDLD

Head-to-head

Santa Cruz FC 1–1–2 Figueirense (4 last)

Figueirense2-1Santa Cruz FC
Santa Cruz FC1-1Figueirense
Figueirense3-1Santa Cruz FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Cruz FC 1557 · Figueirense 1496

	Santa Cruz FC	Draw	Figueirense
Our model	44%	33%	24%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Cruz FC (rating 1557 vs 1496).
H2H favours Figueirense: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Cruz FC	Figueirense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.2	3.2 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	4.20 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:30 +2’	1.75	3.20	4.20
00:14 +2’	1.95▲	3.10▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:23	2.12	2.94	3.35
23:16	2.06▼	3.03▲	3.62▲
00:16	2.07▲	3.02▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Cruz FC 1–1–2 Figueirense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/10/17 Brazil Serie B	Figueirense	2-1 HT 2-0	Santa Cruz FC
24/06/17 Brazil Serie B	Santa Cruz FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Figueirense
25/09/16 Brazil Serie A	Figueirense	3-1 HT 2-0	Santa Cruz FC
16/06/16 Brazil Serie A	Santa Cruz FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Figueirense

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	14	7	4	3	17	14	25
2	Brusque	14	7	3	4	20	15	24
3	Santa Cruz FC	14	7	3	4	15	10	24
4	Paysandu	14	7	2	5	22	19	23
5	Guarani	14	6	5	3	25	14	23
6	Botafogo PB	14	7	1	6	19	15	22
7	Maringa FC	14	6	4	4	27	24	22
8	Ferroviaria SP	14	6	4	4	15	12	22
9	Caxias RS	14	5	6	3	13	10	21
10	Floresta EC	14	5	5	4	15	14	20
11	Ituano	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
12	Ypiranga RS	14	5	3	6	17	19	18
13	Volta Redonda	14	5	3	6	10	15	18
14	Amazonas FC	14	5	2	7	13	19	17
15	Maranhao	14	4	5	5	11	14	17
16	Figueirense	14	4	5	5	12	18	17
17	Itabaiana	14	4	4	6	12	17	16
18	Barra FC	14	3	6	5	17	16	15
19	AD Confianca	14	3	2	9	8	14	11
20	Anapolis FC	14	2	3	9	9	18	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Cruz FC	Figueirense
Barra FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
Ituano	1-0 W	0-0 D
Paysandu	3-1 W	2-1 W
Brusque	1-0 W	1-3 L
Volta Redonda	2-0 W	0-0 D
Guarani	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Cruz FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Cruz FC

LWWDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
05/07	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
27/06	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
21/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	10	8	L
14/06	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
31/05	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
16/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
12/05	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-1	0	9	W
02/05	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

Figueirense

LWLDWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	15	6	D
07/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-3	10	6	L
28/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
21/06	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/06	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/06	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	6	11	W
24/05	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
17/05	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
10/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/05	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-3	11	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Cruz FC vs Figueirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Cruz FC win (45%). Probabilities: Santa Cruz FC 45%, draw 30%, Figueirense 25%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Cruz FC vs Figueirense?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Santa Cruz FC 1.2 · Figueirense 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Cruz FC vs Figueirense?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.