Football · Brazil Serie C · 16/08, 00:30

Prediction: Santa Cruz FC vs Maranhao

Team pages: Santa Cruz FC · Maranhao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.7Total

Santa Cruz FC1.19

Maranhao0.52

1X2

53% 30% 17%

Santa Cruz FC Draw Maranhao

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Cruz FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWWWLD

Maranhao 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDLDLWDW

Head-to-head

Santa Cruz FC 1–1–0 Maranhao (2 last)

Santa Cruz FC0-0Maranhao
Maranhao0-1Santa Cruz FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Cruz FC 1545 · Maranhao 1483

	Santa Cruz FC	Draw	Maranhao
Our model	52%	33%	15%
Market	55%	27%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 1.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Cruz FC (rating 1545 vs 1483).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Cruz FC	Maranhao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.30

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:36 +40’	1.65	3.30	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:21 +1’	1.87	3.00	4.48
11:49	1.85▼	3.06▲	4.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Cruz FC 1–1–0 Maranhao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/25 Brazil Serie D	Santa Cruz FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Maranhao
14/09/25 Brazil Serie D	Maranhao	0-1 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz FC

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	16	8	4	4	20	17	28
2	Brusque	16	8	3	5	22	17	27
3	Botafogo PB	16	8	2	6	23	18	26
4	Paysandu	16	8	2	6	25	22	26
5	Guarani	16	7	5	4	29	17	26
6	Santa Cruz FC	16	7	4	5	17	13	25
7	Ypiranga RS	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
8	Caxias RS	16	6	6	4	16	12	24
9	Ferroviaria SP	16	6	6	4	17	14	24
10	Amazonas FC	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
11	Maringa FC	16	6	5	5	28	28	23
12	Ituano	16	6	4	6	18	17	22
13	Floresta EC	16	5	6	5	17	19	21
14	Maranhao	16	5	6	5	13	15	21
15	Figueirense	16	5	6	5	15	20	21
16	Volta Redonda	16	5	3	8	11	21	18
17	Itabaiana	16	4	5	7	13	20	17
18	Anapolis FC	16	4	3	9	15	20	15
19	Barra FC	16	3	6	7	17	19	15
20	AD Confianca	16	3	3	10	10	17	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Cruz FC	Maranhao
Ituano	1-0 W	0-0 D
Paysandu	3-1 W	0-1 L
Ypiranga RS	0-1 L	2-1 W
Brusque	1-0 W	2-1 W
Ferroviaria SP	1-1 D	0-0 D
Maringa FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Cruz FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Cruz FC

WDDWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	10	9	L
12/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
05/07	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
27/06	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
21/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	10	8	L
14/06	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
31/05	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
16/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	3	9	W

Maranhao

LDDDLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
25/07	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
12/07	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
04/07	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	10	7	L
29/06	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
21/06	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
16/06	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
31/05	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
24/05	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/05	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Cruz FC vs Maranhao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Cruz FC win (53%). Probabilities: Santa Cruz FC 53%, draw 30%, Maranhao 17%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Cruz FC vs Maranhao?

The model expects 1.7 goals (Santa Cruz FC 1.19 · Maranhao 0.52), with a 62% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Cruz FC vs Maranhao?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.