Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: HPS vs Union Plaani

Team pages: HPS · Union Plaani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

HPS2.79

Union Plaani1.37

1X2

66% 18% 16%

HPS Draw Union Plaani

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

HPS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWLDD

Union Plaani 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

HPS 1–0 Union Plaani (1 last)

Union Plaani0-2HPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS 1512 · Union Plaani 1420

	HPS	Draw	Union Plaani
Our model	66%	18%	16%
Market	66%	18%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (rating 1512 vs 1420).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS	Union Plaani
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.2	0.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	2.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.90 ★
2	5.75 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +80’	1.36	5.00	5.75
19:46 +7’	1.36	5.00	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +1’	1.32	5.90	5.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS 1–0–0 Union Plaani

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Union Plaani	0-2 HT 0-0	HPS

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	16	10	3	3	33	22	33
2	PEPO	16	9	4	3	29	21	31
3	HIFK 2	16	7	6	3	35	23	27
4	Atlantis	16	8	2	6	51	38	26
5	HPS	16	7	4	5	38	33	25
6	PPJ	17	5	8	4	30	25	23
7	Reipas	16	7	2	7	34	32	23
8	Puiu	16	4	4	8	24	33	16
9	MyPa	17	3	3	11	18	38	12
10	Union Plaani	16	2	2	12	15	42	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS	Union Plaani
PPJ	2-2 D	1-0 W
HIFK 2	5-5 D	0-3 L
Atlantis	3-5 L	3-6 L
MyPa	5-2 W	0-2 L
PEPO	0-2 L	0-2 L
Reipas	3-2 W	2-4 L
Puiu	2-0 W	2-1 W
Kiffen	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS

DWLWWLWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
01/08	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-3	5-5	6	13	D
25/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-3	3-5	12	3	L
18/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	5-2	9	5	W
11/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/07	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
27/06	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/06	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
06/06	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
31/05	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	2-2	3	5	D

Union Plaani

LLLLWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
31/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
24/07	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	3-6	8	3	L
11/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
04/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
27/06	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
13/06	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
06/06	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
29/05	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS vs Union Plaani?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS win (66%). Probabilities: HPS 66%, draw 18%, Union Plaani 16%.

How many goals are expected in HPS vs Union Plaani?

The model expects 4.15 goals (HPS 2.79 · Union Plaani 1.37), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS vs Union Plaani?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.