Football · Australia Western Australia Premier League · 22/08, 09:00
Prediction: Bayswater City vs Perth Glory NPL
Team pages: Bayswater City · Perth Glory NPL
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.39Total
Bayswater City2.86
Perth Glory NPL1.54
1X2
Bayswater City
Draw
Perth Glory NPL
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bayswater City
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Perth Glory NPL
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayswater City
4–1–1
Perth Glory NPL
(6 last)
- Perth Glory NPL1-0Bayswater City
- Bayswater City3-0Perth Glory NPL
- Perth Glory NPL1-1Bayswater City
- Perth Glory NPL1-2Bayswater City
- Perth Glory NPL1-6Bayswater City
- Bayswater City5-2Perth Glory NPL
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayswater City 1580 · Perth Glory NPL 1472
| Bayswater City | Draw | Perth Glory NPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayswater City (rating 1580 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Bayswater City: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayswater City | Perth Glory NPL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.5 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayswater City 4–1–1 Perth Glory NPL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Perth Glory NPL | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bayswater City |
| 01/08/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Bayswater City | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Perth Glory NPL |
| 17/05/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Perth Glory NPL | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Bayswater City |
| 25/01/25 Australia Friendlies | Perth Glory NPL | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Bayswater City |
| 20/07/24 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Perth Glory NPL | 1-6 HT 1-4 | Bayswater City |
| 20/04/24 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Bayswater City | 5-2 HT 1-2 | Perth Glory NPL |
Standings · Australia Western Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 58 | 27 | 44 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 28 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar FC | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 29 | 38 |
| 4 | Perth SC | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 50 | 40 | 35 |
| 5 | Fremantle City FC | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 43 | 34 | 32 |
| 6 | Stirling Macedonia | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 37 | 27 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 37 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 39 | 24 |
| 9 | Perth Glory NPL | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 43 | 21 |
| 10 | Armadale | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 52 | 21 |
| 11 | Dianella White Eagles | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | 20 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 52 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayswater City | Perth Glory NPL |
|---|---|---|
| Stirling Macedonia | 6-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Olympic Kingsway | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Perth SC | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Fremantle City FC | 1-1 D | 5-3 W |
| Perth RedStar FC | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Western Knights | 4-4 D | 2-2 D |
| Armadale | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayswater City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayswater City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 6-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Sorrento Australia Western Australia Premier League |
3-1 | 7-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | Sydney FC Australia Cup |
1-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 26/06 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Western Knights Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/06 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Perth Glory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
3-0 | 5-3 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Western Knights Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Balcatta Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayswater City vs Perth Glory NPL?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayswater City win (64%). Probabilities: Bayswater City 64%, draw 18%, Perth Glory NPL 18%.
How many goals are expected in Bayswater City vs Perth Glory NPL?
The model expects 4.39 goals (Bayswater City 2.86 · Perth Glory NPL 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayswater City vs Perth Glory NPL?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.