Football · Australia Tasmania Super League Women · 06/09, 06:30

Prediction: Kingborough Lions (W) vs Devonport City (W)

Team pages: Kingborough Lions (W) · Devonport City (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

Kingborough Lions (W)1.03

Devonport City (W)3.03

1X2

7% 12% 81%

Kingborough Lions (W) Draw Devonport City (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Kingborough Lions (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWLWL

Devonport City (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Kingborough Lions (W) 0–6 Devonport City (W) (6 last)

Devonport City (W)3-1Kingborough Lions (W)
Devonport City (W)3-0Kingborough Lions (W)
Kingborough Lions (W)0-1Devonport City (W)
Devonport City (W)7-1Kingborough Lions (W)
Kingborough Lions (W)2-5Devonport City (W)
Devonport City (W)5-2Kingborough Lions (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kingborough Lions (W) 1487 · Devonport City (W) 1621

	Kingborough Lions (W)	Draw	Devonport City (W)
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	5%	10%	84%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Devonport City (W) (rating 1487 vs 1621).
H2H favours Devonport City (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kingborough Lions (W)	Devonport City (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	5.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	2.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	90/10/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	4.4 / 8.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

117.00

X9.00

21.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.93

2 (-2.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.93

Under 4.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	19.00 → 17.00▼	Bet365 17.00
X	13.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
2	1.05 → 1.10▲	Bet365 1.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:28 +13’	19.00	13.00	1.05
22:43 +19’	26.00▲	13.00	1.05▲
10:12 +2’	17.00▼	9.00▼	1.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kingborough Lions (W) 0–0–6 Devonport City (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Devonport City (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Kingborough Lions (W)
09/05/26 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Devonport City (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Kingborough Lions (W)
02/08/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Kingborough Lions (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Devonport City (W)
31/05/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Devonport City (W)	7-1 HT 2-1	Kingborough Lions (W)
22/03/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Kingborough Lions (W)	2-5 HT 1-3	Devonport City (W)
31/08/24 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Devonport City (W)	5-2 HT 4-1	Kingborough Lions (W)

Standings · Australia Tasmania Super League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Devonport City (W)	20	19	0	1	99	9	57
2	Glenorchy Knights (W)	20	14	3	3	56	17	45
3	South Hobart (W)	19	10	2	7	51	36	32
4	Kingborough Lions (W)	19	8	3	8	36	40	27
5	Launceston United (W)	20	7	2	11	56	46	23
6	Taroona (W)	20	7	2	11	30	47	23
7	Launceston City (W)	19	4	4	11	22	64	16
8	Riverside Olympic (W)	19	0	2	17	8	99	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kingborough Lions (W)	Devonport City (W)
Glenorchy Knights (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Riverside Olympic (W)	4-0 W	9-0 W
Taroona (W)	2-3 L	2-1 W
South Hobart (W)	3-1 W	7-2 W
Launceston United (W)	2-1 W	5-0 W
Launceston City (W)	2-1 W	9-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Devonport City (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kingborough Lions (W)

DLLLWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	0-3	1	0	L
22/08	Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
15/08	Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
08/08	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	3-1	8	0	W
01/08	Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	2-1	2-1	13	1	W
18/07	Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	2-1	8	0	W
11/07	Devonport City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	1-3	1	0	L
04/07	Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-2	0-3	5	0	L
28/06	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/06	Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	1-1	9	1	D

Devonport City (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	2-0	5-0	9	0	W
22/08	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	4-1	7-2	4	1	W
15/08	Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	6-0	9-0	15	0	W
08/08	Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	4-0	9-0	7	2	W
01/08	Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
18/07	Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	2-1	2-1	11	1	W
11/07	Kingborough Lions (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-0	3-1	9	0	W
04/07	Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	2-0	5-0	8	0	W
27/06	Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
20/06	Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	3-0	6-0	12	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kingborough Lions (W) vs Devonport City (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Devonport City (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Kingborough Lions (W) 7%, draw 12%, Devonport City (W) 81%.

How many goals are expected in Kingborough Lions (W) vs Devonport City (W)?

The model expects 4.06 goals (Kingborough Lions (W) 1.03 · Devonport City (W) 3.03), with a 56% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kingborough Lions (W) vs Devonport City (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.