Football · Australia Tasmania Super League Women · 15/08, 06:30

Prediction: Taroona (W) vs Kingborough Lions (W)

Team pages: Taroona (W) · Kingborough Lions (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Taroona (W)1.47

Kingborough Lions (W)2.13

1X2

26% 22% 52%

Taroona (W) Draw Kingborough Lions (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Taroona (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWLLDL

Kingborough Lions (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Taroona (W) 0–2–4 Kingborough Lions (W) (6 last)

Kingborough Lions (W)1-1Taroona (W)
Kingborough Lions (W)1-0Taroona (W)
Kingborough Lions (W)4-4Taroona (W)
Taroona (W)2-3Kingborough Lions (W)
Taroona (W)0-4Kingborough Lions (W)
Kingborough Lions (W)7-0Taroona (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Taroona (W) 1441 · Kingborough Lions (W) 1516

	Taroona (W)	Draw	Kingborough Lions (W)
Our model	26%	23%	52%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kingborough Lions (W) (rating 1441 vs 1516).
H2H favours Kingborough Lions (W): 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Taroona (W)	Kingborough Lions (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.6 / 0	0.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +11’	3.50	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Taroona (W) 0–2–4 Kingborough Lions (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Kingborough Lions (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Taroona (W)
11/04/26 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Kingborough Lions (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Taroona (W)
24/08/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Kingborough Lions (W)	4-4 HT 0-3	Taroona (W)
28/06/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Taroona (W)	2-3 HT 0-0	Kingborough Lions (W)
26/04/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Taroona (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	Kingborough Lions (W)
11/08/24 Australia Tasmania Super League Women	Kingborough Lions (W)	7-0 HT 2-0	Taroona (W)

Standings · Australia Tasmania Super League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Devonport City (W)	17	16	0	1	78	7	48
2	Glenorchy Knights (W)	17	12	2	3	50	16	38
3	South Hobart (W)	16	9	2	5	45	26	29
4	Kingborough Lions (W)	16	7	3	6	30	34	24
5	Launceston United (W)	17	6	1	10	48	40	19
6	Launceston City (W)	16	4	4	8	21	50	16
7	Taroona (W)	17	4	2	11	22	44	14
8	Riverside Olympic (W)	16	0	2	14	7	84	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Taroona (W)	Kingborough Lions (W)
Glenorchy Knights (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
South Hobart (W)	1-1 D	3-1 W
Devonport City (W)	1-2 L	1-3 L
Launceston United (W)	1-4 L	2-1 W
Launceston City (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kingborough Lions (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Taroona (W)

LWLDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
02/08	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
18/07	Devonport City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-2	1-2	0	1	L
11/07	Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-2	1-4	6	0	L
04/07	Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
27/06	Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
21/06	Kingborough Lions (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
13/06	Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	1-2	1	0	L
29/05	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	2-1	4-2	2	0	W
23/05	Devonport City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	0-3	0	1	L

Kingborough Lions (W)

LDWDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	3-1	8	0	W
01/08	Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	2-1	2-1	13	1	W
18/07	Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	2-1	8	0	W
11/07	Devonport City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	1-3	1	0	L
04/07	Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-2	0-3	5	0	L
28/06	South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/06	Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
30/05	Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	3-0	4-2	5	1	W
24/05	Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-1	2-2	4	2	D
09/05	Devonport City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women	0-2	0-3	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Taroona (W) vs Kingborough Lions (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kingborough Lions (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Taroona (W) 26%, draw 22%, Kingborough Lions (W) 52%.

How many goals are expected in Taroona (W) vs Kingborough Lions (W)?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Taroona (W) 1.47 · Kingborough Lions (W) 2.13), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Taroona (W) vs Kingborough Lions (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.