Football · South Korea K3 League · 11/09, 12:00
Prediction: Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen FC
Team pages: Daejeon Korail · Ulsan Citizen FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Daejeon Korail1.55
Ulsan Citizen FC0.82
1X2
Daejeon Korail
Draw
Ulsan Citizen FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Daejeon Korail
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Ulsan Citizen FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Daejeon Korail
3–3–0
Ulsan Citizen FC
(6 last)
- Ulsan Citizen FC2-2Daejeon Korail
- Ulsan Citizen FC0-1Daejeon Korail
- Ulsan Citizen FC1-2Daejeon Korail
- Daejeon Korail3-0Ulsan Citizen FC
- Ulsan Citizen FC1-1Daejeon Korail
- Daejeon Korail1-1Ulsan Citizen FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daejeon Korail 1530 · Ulsan Citizen FC 1476
| Daejeon Korail | Draw | Ulsan Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Korail (rating 1530 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Daejeon Korail: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Daejeon Korail | Ulsan Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.8 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Korail 3–3–0 Ulsan Citizen FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 South Korea K3/K4 Championship | Ulsan Citizen FC | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Daejeon Korail |
| 01/05/26 South Korea K3 League | Ulsan Citizen FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Daejeon Korail |
| 05/07/25 South Korea K3 League | Ulsan Citizen FC | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Daejeon Korail |
| 01/03/25 South Korea K3 League | Daejeon Korail | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Ulsan Citizen FC |
| 28/09/24 South Korea K3 League | Ulsan Citizen FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Daejeon Korail |
| 31/05/24 South Korea K3 League | Daejeon Korail | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ulsan Citizen FC |
Standings · South Korea K3 League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung City AC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 18 | 49 |
| 2 | Pocheon Citizen FC | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 36 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 16 | 38 |
| 4 | Busan Trans Corp | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 21 | 37 |
| 5 | Dangjin Citizen FC | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 28 |
| 6 | Gangneung City | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29 | 27 |
| 7 | Chuncheon FC | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 34 | 26 |
| 8 | Gyeongju HNP | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 26 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 26 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen FC | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 24 | 25 |
| 11 | Yeoju | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 25 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 21 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 18 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong FC | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 41 | 17 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 46 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Daejeon Korail | Ulsan Citizen FC |
|---|---|---|
| Changwon City | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Pocheon Citizen FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Gyeongju HNP | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Busan Trans Corp | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Jeonbuk Motors II | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Chuncheon FC | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Yeoju | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Mokpo City | 3-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daejeon Korail
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 11/07 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Ulsan Citizen FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 10/07 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Korail win (55%). Probabilities: Daejeon Korail 55%, draw 26%, Ulsan Citizen FC 20%.
How many goals are expected in Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen FC?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Daejeon Korail 1.55 · Ulsan Citizen FC 0.82), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.