Football · China Super League · 17/07, 13:35
Prediction: Henan vs Qingdao Hainiu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Henan2
Qingdao Hainiu1.02
1X2
Henan
Draw
Qingdao Hainiu
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Henan
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Qingdao Hainiu
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Henan
3–1–2
Qingdao Hainiu
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henan 1505 · Qingdao Hainiu 1497
| Henan | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Henan: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Henan | Qingdao Hainiu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 2.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.6 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Henan 3–1–2 Qingdao Hainiu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Henan |
| 29/08/25 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Henan |
| 20/04/25 China Super League | Henan | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 10/08/24 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Henan |
| 21/04/24 China Super League | Henan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 17/07/23 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Henan |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 17 | 42 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 31 | 25 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 31 | 24 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 33 | 24 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 21 |
| 8 | Liaoning Ironman | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 20 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 20 |
| 10 | Shanghai Shenhua | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 27 | 19 |
| 11 | Zhejiang | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 29 | 17 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 28 | 14 |
| 15 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 8 |
| 16 | Wuhan Three Towns | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Henan | Qingdao Hainiu |
|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Shanghai Port | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Beijing Guoan | 2-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Liaoning Ironman | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Henan (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Jiangxi Lushan China FA Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Zhejiang China Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Qingdao Hainiu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 26/06 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
4-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuxi Wugo China FA Cup |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henan vs Qingdao Hainiu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Henan win (59%). Probabilities: Henan 59%, draw 23%, Qingdao Hainiu 18%.
How many goals are expected in Henan vs Qingdao Hainiu?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Henan 2 · Qingdao Hainiu 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Henan vs Qingdao Hainiu?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.