Football · China Super League · 17/10, 13:35

Prediction: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong

Team pages: Yunnan Yukun · Chongqing Tonglianglong

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Yunnan Yukun2.08

Chongqing Tonglianglong1.19

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Yunnan Yukun Draw Chongqing Tonglianglong

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Yunnan Yukun 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Chongqing Tonglianglong 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Yunnan Yukun 1–4–1 Chongqing Tonglianglong (6 last)

Yunnan Yukun1-0Chongqing Tonglianglong
Chongqing Tonglianglong0-0Yunnan Yukun
Chongqing Tonglianglong3-2Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun1-1Chongqing Tonglianglong
Yunnan Yukun0-0Chongqing Tonglianglong
Chongqing Tonglianglong1-1Yunnan Yukun

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yunnan Yukun (rating 1506 vs 1428).
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yunnan Yukun	Chongqing Tonglianglong
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.9	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:49

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.72 → 1.72	Pinn 1.72
X	4.07 → 4.07	Pinn 4.07
2	4.30 → 4.30	Pinn 4.30

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +66’	1.72	4.07	4.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yunnan Yukun 1–4–1 Chongqing Tonglianglong

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 China FA Cup	Yunnan Yukun	1-0 HT 0-0	Chongqing Tonglianglong
20/05/26 China Super League	Chongqing Tonglianglong	0-0 HT 0-0	Yunnan Yukun
15/09/24 China Division 1	Chongqing Tonglianglong	3-2 HT 2-2	Yunnan Yukun
27/04/24 China Division 1	Yunnan Yukun	1-1 HT 1-0	Chongqing Tonglianglong
02/07/23 China Division 2	Yunnan Yukun	0-0 HT 0-0	Chongqing Tonglianglong
06/05/23 China Division 2	Chongqing Tonglianglong	1-1	Yunnan Yukun

Standings · China Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	27	15	7	5	51	31	52
2	Beijing Guoan	27	12	10	5	52	33	41
3	Dalian Young Boy	26	12	4	10	38	42	40
4	Qingdao West Coast	26	8	14	4	31	32	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	11	5	11	55	58	38
6	Shandong Taishan	26	13	4	9	46	43	37
7	Shanghai Port	27	11	8	8	44	35	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	13	5	9	59	47	34
9	Chongqing Tonglianglong	26	7	10	9	27	32	31
10	Zhejiang	27	10	6	11	47	47	31
11	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	27	8	5	14	36	47	29
12	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	27	10	8	9	37	32	28
13	Henan	27	8	10	9	35	37	28
14	Liaoning Ironman	26	7	4	15	34	47	25
15	Wuhan Three Towns	26	5	11	10	39	46	21
16	Qingdao Hainiu	27	6	3	18	34	56	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yunnan Yukun	Chongqing Tonglianglong
Shanghai Shenhua	1-7 L	1-3 L
Liaoning Ironman	5-0 W	1-3 L
Zhejiang	0-6 L	1-1 D
Dalian Young Boy	3-1 W	0-1 L
Chengdu Rongcheng	1-0 W	1-1 D
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	4-3 W	0-2 L
Shanghai Port	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Yunnan Yukun (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yunnan Yukun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	1-2	1-7	5	1	L
06/09	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
29/08	Zhejiang China Super League	0-5	0-6	3	3	L
22/08	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-1	3-3	5	2	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	0-1	3-1	9	4	W
08/08	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
26/07	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League	2-1	4-3	3	4	W
17/07	Shanghai Port China Super League	0-2	2-2	6	2	D
10/07	Shandong Taishan China Super League	1-3	3-4	14	1	L

Chongqing Tonglianglong

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
29/08	Henan China Super League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
14/08	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
09/08	Shanghai Port China Super League	2-2	2-3	7	3	L
02/08	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
25/07	Wuhan Three Towns China Super League	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
18/07	Zhejiang China Super League	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/07	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/07	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	1-0	1-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yunnan Yukun win (57%). Probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 57%, draw 23%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 20%.

How many goals are expected in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Yunnan Yukun 2.08 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 1.19), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.