Football · China Super League · 09/10, 13:35
Prediction: Qingdao Hainiu vs Beijing Guoan
Team pages: Qingdao Hainiu · Beijing Guoan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.59Total
Qingdao Hainiu1.31
Beijing Guoan2.29
1X2
Qingdao Hainiu
Draw
Beijing Guoan
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Qingdao Hainiu
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Beijing Guoan
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Qingdao Hainiu
1–2–3
Beijing Guoan
(6 last)
- Beijing Guoan4-2Qingdao Hainiu
- Beijing Guoan2-4Qingdao Hainiu
- Qingdao Hainiu1-1Beijing Guoan
- Beijing Guoan6-0Qingdao Hainiu
- Qingdao Hainiu1-1Beijing Guoan
- Beijing Guoan2-0Qingdao Hainiu
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Guoan (rating 1385 vs 1587).
- H2H favours Beijing Guoan: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Qingdao Hainiu | Beijing Guoan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.6 | 2.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2.5 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Qingdao Hainiu 1–2–3 Beijing Guoan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 26/10/25 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 2-4 HT 1-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 17/05/25 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 19/10/24 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 21/05/24 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 22/07/23 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Young Boy | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | 38 |
| 5 | Qingdao West Coast | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | 38 |
| 6 | Shandong Taishan | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 37 |
| 7 | Shanghai Port | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 33 | 33 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 31 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 32 | 31 |
| 10 | Zhejiang | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 43 | 31 |
| 11 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | 28 |
| 12 | Henan | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 27 |
| 13 | Liaoning Ironman | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | 25 |
| 14 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 32 | 25 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | 21 |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Qingdao Hainiu | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Dalian Young Boy | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Shanghai Port | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Shandong Taishan | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Zhejiang | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 6 L | 4 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Beijing Guoan (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Qingdao Hainiu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/08 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/07 | Henan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Zhejiang China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
Beijing Guoan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 28/08 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
1-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 18/08 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/07 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Qingdao Hainiu vs Beijing Guoan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Beijing Guoan win (59%). Probabilities: Qingdao Hainiu 20%, draw 21%, Beijing Guoan 59%.
How many goals are expected in Qingdao Hainiu vs Beijing Guoan?
The model expects 3.59 goals (Qingdao Hainiu 1.31 · Beijing Guoan 2.29), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Hainiu vs Beijing Guoan?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.