Football · Estonia Meistriliiga Women · 02/09, 18:00

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri (W) vs FC Flora Tallinn (W)

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri (W) · FC Flora Tallinn (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

Harju JK Laagri (W)1.13

FC Flora Tallinn (W)3.11

1X2

10% 15% 76%

Harju JK Laagri (W) Draw FC Flora Tallinn (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLLLWW

FC Flora Tallinn (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri (W) 0–1–1 FC Flora Tallinn (W) (2 last)

FC Flora Tallinn (W)2-2Harju JK Laagri (W)
FC Flora Tallinn (W)2-0Harju JK Laagri (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri (W) 1466 · FC Flora Tallinn (W) 1541

	Harju JK Laagri (W)	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn (W)
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	10%	15%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (W) (rating 1466 vs 1541).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri (W)	FC Flora Tallinn (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.6	2.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

19.50

X6.00

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.82

2 (-2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 9.50▼	Bet365 9.50
X	8.00 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00
2	1.14 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:03 +5’	11.00	8.00	1.14
15:15 +10’	9.00▼	8.00	1.17▲
05:00 +10’	13.00▲	7.50▼	1.14▼
14:26 +4’	9.50▼	6.00▼	1.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri (W) 0–1–1 FC Flora Tallinn (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women	FC Flora Tallinn (W)	2-2 HT 2-2	Harju JK Laagri (W)
20/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women	FC Flora Tallinn (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri (W)

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Flora Tallinn (W)	15	9	3	3	41	19	30
2	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)	16	10	0	6	45	27	30
3	Viimsi JK (W)	16	8	3	5	31	23	27
4	Saku Sporting (W)	16	8	2	6	40	37	26
5	Harju JK Laagri (W)	15	3	3	9	23	39	12
6	FC Elva (W)	16	3	1	12	23	58	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri (W)	FC Flora Tallinn (W)
Viimsi JK (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
FC Elva (W)	3-2 W	7-1 W
Saku Sporting (W)	2-4 L	2-0 W
Paide Linnanaiskond (W)	0-5 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harju JK Laagri (W)

LLLDWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/08	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
08/08	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	2-4	5	1	L
01/08	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	0-5	2	0	L
23/07	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	1-2	1	3	L
18/07	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	1-1	6-2	7	1	W
12/06	FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-2	2-2	6	5	D
29/05	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	1-4	1	2	L
09/05	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
01/05	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-1	1-2	4	1	L

FC Flora Tallinn (W)

DWWWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-0	2-0	11	1	W
15/08	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	3-0	4-2	5	2	W
05/08	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-1	2-1	3	0	W
01/08	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/06	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
12/06	Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-2	2-2	11	5	D
30/05	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	3-0	5-1	4	2	W
16/05	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	6-1	7-1	8	1	W
09/05	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-0	4-2	2	3	W
01/05	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-0	1-1	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri (W) vs FC Flora Tallinn (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri (W) 10%, draw 15%, FC Flora Tallinn (W) 76%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri (W) vs FC Flora Tallinn (W)?

The model expects 4.25 goals (Harju JK Laagri (W) 1.13 · FC Flora Tallinn (W) 3.11), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri (W) vs FC Flora Tallinn (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.