Football · Estonia Meistriliiga Women · 05/09, 11:30

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri (W) vs Paide Linnanaiskond (W)

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri (W) · Paide Linnanaiskond (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.57Total

Harju JK Laagri (W)1.28

Paide Linnanaiskond (W)3.28

1X2

7% 12% 81%

Harju JK Laagri (W) Draw Paide Linnanaiskond (W)

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLWWL

Paide Linnanaiskond (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri (W) 0–3 Paide Linnanaiskond (W) (3 last)

Paide Linnanaiskond (W)5-0Harju JK Laagri (W)
Harju JK Laagri (W)1-4Paide Linnanaiskond (W)
Paide Linnanaiskond (W)5-1Harju JK Laagri (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri (W) 1458 · Paide Linnanaiskond (W) 1569

	Harju JK Laagri (W)	Draw	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	4%	10%	86%

Estimated total (ours) 4.57 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnanaiskond (W) (rating 1458 vs 1569).
H2H favours Paide Linnanaiskond (W): 3-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri (W)	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.9	2.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.8	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

121.00

X9.50

21.08

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.85

2 (-3)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.85

Under 4.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
X	10.00 → 9.50▼	Bet365 9.50
2	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +3’	21.00	10.00	1.08
05:11 +14’	26.00▲	12.00▲	1.05▼
08:25 +30’	21.00▼	9.50▼	1.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri (W) 0–0–3 Paide Linnanaiskond (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri (W)
29/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women	Harju JK Laagri (W)	1-4 HT 0-2	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)
05/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)	5-1 HT 4-0	Harju JK Laagri (W)

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Flora Tallinn (W)	16	10	3	3	46	20	33
2	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)	16	10	0	6	45	27	30
3	Viimsi JK (W)	16	8	3	5	31	23	27
4	Saku Sporting (W)	16	8	2	6	40	37	26
5	Harju JK Laagri (W)	16	3	3	10	24	44	12
6	FC Elva (W)	16	3	1	12	23	58	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri (W)	Paide Linnanaiskond (W)
FC Flora Tallinn (W)	1-5 L	2-4 L
Viimsi JK (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Elva (W)	3-2 W	4-1 W
Saku Sporting (W)	2-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnanaiskond (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harju JK Laagri (W)

LLDWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-4	1-5	4	2	L
20/08	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/08	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
08/08	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	2-4	5	1	L
01/08	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	0-5	2	0	L
23/07	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	1-2	1	3	L
18/07	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	1-1	6-2	7	1	W
12/06	FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-2	2-2	6	5	D
29/05	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	1-4	1	2	L
09/05	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-2	1-3	6	4	L

Paide Linnanaiskond (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
20/08	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	3-1	4-1	13	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-3	2-4	6	2	L
09/08	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-1	3-1	4	0	W
05/08	FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	1-0	1-2	1	0	L
01/08	Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-0	5-0	11	0	W
26/07	Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-3	2-4	4	2	L
20/06	FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
13/06	Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
29/05	Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women	2-0	4-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri (W) vs Paide Linnanaiskond (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paide Linnanaiskond (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri (W) 7%, draw 12%, Paide Linnanaiskond (W) 81%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri (W) vs Paide Linnanaiskond (W)?

The model expects 4.57 goals (Harju JK Laagri (W) 1.28 · Paide Linnanaiskond (W) 3.28), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri (W) vs Paide Linnanaiskond (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.