Football · Estonia Meistriliiga Women · 05/09, 11:30
Prediction: Saku Sporting (W) vs FC Elva (W)
Team pages: Saku Sporting (W) · FC Elva (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.76Total
Saku Sporting (W)3.38
FC Elva (W)1.38
1X2
Saku Sporting (W)
Draw
FC Elva (W)
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Saku Sporting (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
FC Elva (W)
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Saku Sporting (W)
5–1–0
FC Elva (W)
(6 last)
- FC Elva (W)1-4Saku Sporting (W)
- FC Elva (W)2-8Saku Sporting (W)
- Saku Sporting (W)2-2FC Elva (W)
- Saku Sporting (W)5-0FC Elva (W)
- FC Elva (W)0-5Saku Sporting (W)
- FC Elva (W)0-10Saku Sporting (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Saku Sporting (W) 1524 · FC Elva (W) 1355
| Saku Sporting (W) | Draw | FC Elva (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 84% | 9% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.76 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 88%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Saku Sporting (W) (rating 1524 vs 1355).
- H2H favours Saku Sporting (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Saku Sporting (W) | FC Elva (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.4 | 1.5 / 4.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.1 / 2.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 6.8 | 1.7 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Saku Sporting (W) 5–1–0 FC Elva (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women | FC Elva (W) | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Saku Sporting (W) |
| 01/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women | FC Elva (W) | 2-8 HT 2-6 | Saku Sporting (W) |
| 21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga Women | Saku Sporting (W) | 2-2 HT 2-1 | FC Elva (W) |
| 10/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga Women | Saku Sporting (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | FC Elva (W) |
| 06/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga Women | FC Elva (W) | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Saku Sporting (W) |
| 26/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga Women | FC Elva (W) | 0-10 HT 0-8 | Saku Sporting (W) |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Flora Tallinn (W) | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 20 | 33 |
| 2 | Paide Linnanaiskond (W) | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 27 | 30 |
| 3 | Viimsi JK (W) | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 27 |
| 4 | Saku Sporting (W) | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 37 | 26 |
| 5 | Harju JK Laagri (W) | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 44 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Elva (W) | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 58 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Saku Sporting (W) | FC Elva (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Flora Tallinn (W) | 0-2 L | 1-7 L |
| Viimsi JK (W) | 1-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Harju JK Laagri (W) | 4-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Paide Linnanaiskond (W) | 4-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Saku Sporting (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Saku Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/08 | FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Elva (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
6-2 | 8-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
3-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
2-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
FC Elva (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/08 | Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 12/08 | Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Saku Sporting (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
2-6 | 2-8 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Viimsi JK (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
3-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
1-1 | 2-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | FC Flora Tallinn (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
1-6 | 1-7 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Harju JK Laagri (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Paide Linnanaiskond (W) Estonia Meistriliiga Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Saku Sporting (W) vs FC Elva (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Saku Sporting (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Saku Sporting (W) 80%, draw 11%, FC Elva (W) 9%.
How many goals are expected in Saku Sporting (W) vs FC Elva (W)?
The model expects 4.76 goals (Saku Sporting (W) 3.38 · FC Elva (W) 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Saku Sporting (W) vs FC Elva (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.