Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/08, 21:00

Prediction: Vila Nova vs Sport Recife

Team pages: Vila Nova · Sport Recife

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Vila Nova1.32

Sport Recife1.05

1X2

42% 30% 29%

Vila Nova Draw Sport Recife

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vila Nova 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLWL

Sport Recife 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLDDDD

Head-to-head

Vila Nova 1–2–3 Sport Recife (6 last)

Sport Recife1-1Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-0Sport Recife
Sport Recife2-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova0-1Sport Recife
Sport Recife1-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova0-0Sport Recife

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vila Nova 1501 · Sport Recife 1489

	Vila Nova	Draw	Sport Recife
Our model	41%	30%	28%
Market	42%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sport Recife: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vila Nova	Sport Recife
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.26
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:30 +1’	2.20	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:32	2.24	3.03	3.58
03:54	2.26▲	3.02▼	3.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 1–2–3 Sport Recife

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	1-1 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
17/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-0 HT 1-0	Sport Recife
27/04/24 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	2-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
03/08/23 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-1 HT 0-0	Sport Recife
18/06/23 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	1-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
06/11/22 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	Sport Recife

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	20	10	5	5	28	25	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	20	10	4	6	27	24	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
8	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
9	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
10	Sport Recife	20	6	11	3	25	19	29
11	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
12	Sao Bernardo SP	20	7	6	7	28	23	27
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
16	Ceara	20	5	7	8	20	25	22
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	2	3	15	15	39	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vila Nova	Sport Recife
Fortaleza	2-1 W	1-2 L
Criciuma	0-2 L	0-1 L
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	0-0 D
Nautico	4-3 W	2-0 W
Cuiaba	0-1 L	1-1 D
Botafogo SP	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vila Nova

WWLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
22/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
11/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
07/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
21/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	4-1	4-3	2	4	W
14/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
09/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
31/05	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	9	12	W

Sport Recife

WDDDLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
23/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	7	8	D
11/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	3-3	7	7	D
04/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
28/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
19/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
14/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
11/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
31/05	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (42%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 42%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 29%.

How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Vila Nova 1.32 · Sport Recife 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.