Prediction: Operario PR vs Gremio Novorizontino
Expected goals: 2.6 (Operario PR 1.43 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.16). The model gives 41% home, 30% draw, 29% away. Over 2 goals (59%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Operario PR sits at 4-1-5 (W-D-L), while Gremio Novorizontino arrives on a 5-4-1 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Operario PR won 2 and Gremio Novorizontino 2, with 2 draws.
| Operario PR | Draw | Gremio Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1484 vs 1574).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Operario PR | Gremio Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.9 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.5 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Operario PR 2–2–2 Gremio Novorizontino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/26 Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste | Operario PR | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 12/10/25 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Operario PR |
| 24/06/25 Brazil Serie B | Operario PR | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 09/11/24 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Operario PR |
| 24/07/24 Brazil Serie B | Operario PR | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 06/11/22 Brazil Serie B | Operario PR | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Gremio Novorizontino |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Sao Bernardo SP | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 25 |
| 7 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 25 |
| 9 | Goias | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 23 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 12 | Nautico | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 21 |
| 13 | Atletico GO | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 15 | CRB | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 19 |
| 16 | Londrina | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 18 |
| 17 | Ceara | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 17 |
| 18 | Avai | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 31 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Operario PR | Gremio Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| Goias | 3-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Ceara | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Nautico | 2-6 L | 2-2 D |
| Chapecoense | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Operario PR
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
3-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 15/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 25/05 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 2-6 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Fluminense Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 1-2 | 16 | 7 | L |
Gremio Novorizontino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/06 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/06 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/06 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Operario PR vs Gremio Novorizontino?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Operario PR win (41%). Probabilities: Operario PR 41%, draw 30%, Gremio Novorizontino 29%.
How many goals are expected in Operario PR vs Gremio Novorizontino?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Operario PR 1.43 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.16), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Operario PR vs Gremio Novorizontino?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.