Prediction: America MG vs Londrina
Expected goals: 2.71 (America MG 1.61 · Londrina 1.1). The model gives 48% home, 28% draw, 24% away. Over 2.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, America MG sits at 2-1-7 (W-D-L), while Londrina arrives on a 4-1-5 run. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for America MG and 0 for Londrina, with 1 draw.
| America MG | Draw | Londrina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 30% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Londrina (rating 1444 vs 1500).
- H2H favours America MG: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America MG | Londrina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.2 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 3–1–0 Londrina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/19 Brazil Serie B | Londrina | 0-1 HT 0-1 | America MG |
| 07/08/19 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Londrina |
| 18/11/17 Brazil Serie B | Londrina | 0-0 HT 0-0 | America MG |
| 02/08/17 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Londrina |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gremio Novorizontino | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | Criciuma | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Sao Bernardo SP | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 25 |
| 9 | Goias | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 23 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 12 | Nautico | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 21 |
| 13 | Atletico GO | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 14 | CRB | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 19 |
| 15 | Londrina | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 18 |
| 16 | Ceara | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 17 |
| 17 | Botafogo SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 18 | Avai | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 31 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | America MG | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Operario PR | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Criciuma | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Fortaleza | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Vila Nova | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Sao Bernardo SP | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: America MG (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America MG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/06 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 07/05 | Cianorte Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
Londrina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 20/06 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 23/05 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/05 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 13/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America MG vs Londrina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a America MG win (48%). Probabilities: America MG 48%, draw 28%, Londrina 24%.
How many goals are expected in America MG vs Londrina?
The model expects 2.71 goals (America MG 1.61 · Londrina 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in America MG vs Londrina?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.