Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 16/07, 02:30
Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs Guayaquil City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Barcelona Guayaquil1.61
Guayaquil City0.64
1X2
Barcelona Guayaquil
Draw
Guayaquil City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Barcelona Guayaquil
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Guayaquil City
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barcelona Guayaquil
3–1–2
Guayaquil City
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1522 · Guayaquil City 1459
| Barcelona Guayaquil | Draw | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 27% | 13% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona Guayaquil (rating 1522 vs 1459).
- H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barcelona Guayaquil | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 0.9 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 3–1–2 Guayaquil City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 05/02/26 America Friendlies | Guayaquil City | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 01/02/26 America Friendlies | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Guayaquil City |
| 27/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Guayaquil City |
| 11/06/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 09/02/23 Club Friendly List | Guayaquil City | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 43 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 27 |
| 6 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Macara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Tecnico Universitario | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 10 | Orense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 23 |
| 11 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 22 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 21 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 18 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 13 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona Guayaquil | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Tecnico Universitario | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Delfin SC | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| SD Aucas | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Independiente del Valle | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Barcelona Guayaquil (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/06 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Insutec Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
Guayaquil City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 08/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/05 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | Astillero FC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Guayaquil City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona Guayaquil win (61%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 61%, draw 25%, Guayaquil City 14%.
How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Guayaquil City?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.61 · Guayaquil City 0.64), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Guayaquil City?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.