Football · Finland Ykkonen · 16/08, 15:00

Prediction: KUPS Akatemia vs PK Keski-Uusimaa

Team pages: KUPS Akatemia · PK Keski-Uusimaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

KUPS Akatemia1.84

PK Keski-Uusimaa2.03

1X2

35% 23% 42%

KUPS Akatemia Draw PK Keski-Uusimaa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KUPS Akatemia 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLDDLL

PK Keski-Uusimaa 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDLWDDW

Head-to-head

KUPS Akatemia 1–1–4 PK Keski-Uusimaa (6 last)

PK Keski-Uusimaa3-0KUPS Akatemia
KUPS Akatemia0-1PK Keski-Uusimaa
PK Keski-Uusimaa2-2KUPS Akatemia
KUPS Akatemia2-3PK Keski-Uusimaa
KUPS Akatemia1-2PK Keski-Uusimaa
PK Keski-Uusimaa1-2KUPS Akatemia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KUPS Akatemia 1447 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1542

	KUPS Akatemia	Draw	PK Keski-Uusimaa
Our model	35%	23%	42%
Market	35%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PK Keski-Uusimaa (rating 1447 vs 1542).
H2H favours PK Keski-Uusimaa: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KUPS Akatemia	PK Keski-Uusimaa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.4	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.69
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +7’	2.60	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:29	2.98	4.09	2.01
11:59	2.69▼	3.95▼	2.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KUPS Akatemia 1–1–4 PK Keski-Uusimaa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	PK Keski-Uusimaa	3-0 HT 2-0	KUPS Akatemia
06/07/25 Finland Ykkonen	KUPS Akatemia	0-1 HT 0-0	PK Keski-Uusimaa
28/04/25 Finland Ykkonen	PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-2 HT 0-2	KUPS Akatemia
05/10/24 Finland Ykkonen	KUPS Akatemia	2-3 HT 1-1	PK Keski-Uusimaa
20/07/24 Finland Ykkonen	KUPS Akatemia	1-2 HT 0-0	PK Keski-Uusimaa
12/05/24 Finland Ykkonen	PK Keski-Uusimaa	1-2 HT 1-2	KUPS Akatemia

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	19	12	4	3	41	15	40
2	RoPS	19	10	6	3	42	25	36
3	OLS	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	19	8	6	5	34	26	30
5	SalPa	19	8	6	5	34	31	30
6	VJS Vantaa	19	7	8	4	33	24	29
7	JJK	19	7	5	7	41	35	26
8	FC Jazz	19	7	5	7	27	28	23
9	TPV	19	5	5	9	28	37	20
10	FC Inter II	19	5	5	9	30	45	20
11	KPV	19	3	3	13	18	58	12
12	KUPS Akatemia	19	2	5	12	30	44	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KUPS Akatemia	PK Keski-Uusimaa
RoPS	1-2 L	3-4 L
FC Inter II	0-1 L	1-0 W
FC Jazz	2-2 D	2-1 W
VJS Vantaa	2-2 D	0-0 D
TPV	1-3 L	2-2 D
Tampere Utd	2-3 L	4-4 D
OLS	2-2 D	1-1 D
SalPa	3-4 L	1-0 W
KPV	4-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PK Keski-Uusimaa (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KUPS Akatemia

WLDLDLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
30/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
26/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
18/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
11/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	2-2	4-4	6	7	D
04/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-3	6	8	L
28/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
12/06	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-3	3-4	5	4	L
05/06	KPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-1	4	4	W

PK Keski-Uusimaa

DWLWDLWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
05/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
31/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	4-4	8	5	D
25/07	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
22/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-3	5	4	L
18/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
05/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-2	3-4	6	7	L
28/06	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	3-1	11	5	W
14/06	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-2	4	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KUPS Akatemia vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PK Keski-Uusimaa win (42%). Probabilities: KUPS Akatemia 35%, draw 23%, PK Keski-Uusimaa 42%.

How many goals are expected in KUPS Akatemia vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

The model expects 3.87 goals (KUPS Akatemia 1.84 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 2.03), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KUPS Akatemia vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.